143 Oak St

St. Johnsbury, VT 05819

$94,796D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 464 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,329/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$497
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$491
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-163/mo
• Annual: $-1,956/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $26,543

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $71k (24.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 464 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $71k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $655 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: St. Johnsbury School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #149 of 192 statewide, top 78%, 702 students, 52% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in St. Johnsbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 464 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.