143 Oak St · St. Johnsbury, VT 05819

$94,796

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 464 Days on market

Built 2024 $491/mo HOA · 37% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 143 Oak Street, St. Johnsbury VT 05819, where modern comfort meets affordability River Bend MHC Park! This brand-new H5 Colony DS 1008-P model manufactured home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 800 sq. ft. (13’4” x 60’ ft. ) of thoughtfully designed living space. Step inside to an open-concept layout with stylish finishes, a bright living area, and a well-appointed kitchen. The home features energy-efficient construction, modern appliances, and low-maintenance materials, making it perfect for easy living. Located in a peaceful and well-maintained community, this home is ideal for those looking for a move-in-ready option in a convenient location. Don’t m

Key facts

• Built 2024
• Listed 464 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a mobile home park (River Bend MHC); mobile model: H5 Colony DS 1008-P
• HOA & community: Monthly park fee of $491 covering park fees, sewer, trash and water; Located in River Bend mobile home community (park-approved)

Exterior

• Parking: Dirt driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200 amp electrical service with circuit breakers; High-speed internet available; Cable and telephone service available
• Home design: Single-wide manufactured home; New construction (2024)
• Construction: Built in 2024; Vinyl exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Manufactured home construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Dirt driveway; Clay exterior color; Vinyl siding

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on main level (approx. 13'4" x 10' and 13'4" x 9'4")
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating
• Interior features: Four total rooms; Two full bathrooms
• Laundry & utility: Energy Star washer; Energy Star dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $71k (24.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.4% in St. Johnsbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: St. Johnsbury School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #149 of 192 statewide, top 78%, 702 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $655 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 464 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 37% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,205 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 464 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.37%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-23,027
• Equity at exit: $16,640

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-29,893
• Equity at exit: $12,565

Cash invested: $26,543 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05819

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,329 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$497
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$118 /mo · $1,422/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$491
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,535

Max offer price $71,205

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-98	-5% $-130	+0% $-163	+5% $-196	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-268	-5% $-216	+0% $-163	+5% $-111	+10% $-58
Rate	-1.0pp $-115	-0.5pp $-139	base $-163	+0.5pp $-188	+1.0pp $-213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,699
• Closing costs: $2,844
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $491 · $5,892/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,796 Active 464 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,796 Active 463 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,796 Active 461 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,796 Active 460 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,796 Active 459 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,796 Active 458 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,796 Active 457 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,796 Active 456 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,796 Active 455 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $94,796 Active 452 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,796 Active 451 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,796 Active 450 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,796 Active 449 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,796 Active 446 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,796 Active 445 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,796 Active 444 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,796 Active 443 DOM
18. 2025-03-14
    listed $94,796 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,310
• − Property taxes: −$1,422
• − Insurance: −$1,271
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,275
• − Management: −$1,275
• − HOA: −$5,892
• − Depreciation: −$2,758
• Taxable loss: −$3,262
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$783
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — St. Johnsbury

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Johnsbury, VT
• Population (ZIP): 9,323

Population outlook (Caledonia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,828 people
• By 2030: 28,820 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 26,262 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 23,780 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 18,516 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 13,647 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Slovak 6% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caledonia

• 2024 margin: D (+12.4) · D 54.5% · R 42.0% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: 23.3pp · 2024: 12.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.4 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+7.0 2012: D+22.9 2008: D+23.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.41%
• Current HPI: 291.8894
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-03-14 Listed $94,796 PrimeMLS