3826 Sentinel Heights Rd

Nedrow, NY 13084

$229,900D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,545/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-400/mo
• Annual: $-4,803/yr
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.46%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-400 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (30.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (32.8% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (32.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#415 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lafayette Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #351 of 590 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: C Grant Grimshaw School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 327 students, 46% FRL); La Fayette Junior-Senior High School (math 67% / reading 52%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 324 students, 40% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.