80 Ashley Dr

Liberty, KY 42539

$145,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $867/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$765
• Tax + insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-166/mo
• Annual: $-1,992/yr
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $40,852

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (40.5% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#185 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Casey County (rural): math 39% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #39 of 165 in KY (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 399 students, 68% FRL); Casey County Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 513 students, 68% FRL); Casey County High School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #21 of 254 statewide, top 10%, 607 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP.
• Casey County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $146k implies a 317% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.0% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.