80 Ashley Dr · Liberty, KY 42539

$145,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 80 Days on market

Built 1995 4.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLERS! Country home with Barn, stalls and an area for pasture, garden, or to build. Unrestricted acreage suitable for additional development. The home is a 14x70, 3 bedroom, 2 bath mobile home, currently occupied by a tenant. Plenty of room to roam in the yard, OR add a fence and you would have plenty of room to make this a small hobby farm. High Speed internet, perfect for working from home! Located 5 minutes to town and 4 miles to beautiful Lake Liberty. Partial sale/division would be considered.

Key facts

• Garden
• Hobby farm
• High speed internet

Tags

• PASTURE
• GARDEN
• UNRESTRICTED ACREAGE
• ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
• HOBBY FARM
• HIGH SPEED INTERNET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area approximately 980 (unit not displayed); Parcel number 084-06H

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: One-level structure; Other property type
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Lot is approximately 4.28 acres (public records); Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring; Crawl space foundation; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $87k (40.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $87k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.7% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#185 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Casey County (rural): math 39% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #39 of 165 in KY (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 399 students, 68% FRL); Casey County Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 513 students, 68% FRL); Casey County High School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #21 of 254 statewide, top 10%, 607 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Casey County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $146k implies a 317% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,741 (40.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $68,806
• Equity at exit: $131,438

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $210,770
• Equity at exit: $283,452

Cash invested: $40,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42539

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $867 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$765
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $304/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,078

Max offer price $116,579

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-83	-5% $-125	+0% $-166	+5% $-373	+10% $-424
Rent	-10% $-235	-5% $-200	+0% $-166	+5% $-132	+10% $-97
Rate	-1.0pp $-93	-0.5pp $-129	base $-166	+0.5pp $-204	+1.0pp $-242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,475
• Closing costs: $4,377
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,900 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $145,900 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,900 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $145,900 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-04-25
    price $149,900
18. 2026-04-16
    price $154,000
19. 2026-04-01
    listed $159,000 Active
20. 2019-06-14
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $304 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,255 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$951/yr (+$79/mo · 312.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,173
• − Property taxes: −$304
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$833
• − Management: −$833
• − Depreciation: −$4,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,130
• After-tax cash flow: $-862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casey County
• NCES district ID: 2101050
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $30,133
• Composite: 32.59/100
• National rank: #5675
• State rank: #39 of 165 in KY

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #9229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,406

Population outlook (Casey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,212 people
• By 2030: 14,709 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 13,684 · -10.0%
• By 2050: 12,709 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 10,716 · -29.6%
• By 2100: 9,141 · -39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Casey

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.4) · D 11.4% · R 87.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -58.1pp · 2024: -76.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.4 2020: R+73.4 2016: R+73.2 2012: R+62.7 2008: R+58.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.68%
• Current HPI: 235.5807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+328.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $149,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $154,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $159,000 ImagineMLS
• 2019-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $304 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.