199 Allen Ave

Lynn, MA 01902

$509,900C

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · Built 1890 · MultiFamily · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,931/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,674
• Tax + insurance: −$699
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,036
• Net cashflow: $523/mo
• Annual: $6,272/yr
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.39%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $142,772

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $510k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $261/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $493k (3.3% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $493k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#74 in MA, #4,077 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, crime D-.
• Lynn (suburban): math 14% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #293 of 302 in MA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 51 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,032 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (590 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $203k; list at $510k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.6% in Lynn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,931/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 3883% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.