11 Square Hill Rd #27

Orange Lake, NY 12553

$99,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 151 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,202/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$1,165
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-116/mo
• Annual: $-1,388/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 2.20%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $83k (16.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#972 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newburgh City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.8% in Orange Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.