11 Square Hill Rd #27 · Orange Lake, NY 12553

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 151 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $127/sqft · 7% above area Est $94k · 7% over $1165/mo HOA · 53% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing end lot with privacy! Imagine your bright and modern new home, ready this spring! This lovely home offers comfort, convenience and affordability. The home features a bright and airy open layout. The kitchen cabinets are white and it offers a crisp contemporary feel with tons of cabinets and appliances. You'll find two nice bedrooms situated on opposite ends of the home, offering privacy. The primary bedrooms features its own private bathroom. Enjoy a super convenient location – just a quick 5-minute drive to town and less than 10 minutes to both I-84 and I-87. Plus, you're only about an hour from the New York City! This spot is also close to West Point, Stewart Airport, the Beacon Bridge, the Newburgh-Beacon Ferry, Metro-North, and both major highways. Please note: The photos shown may be of a similar home from the same manufacturer. The home is on order and is expected soon!

Key facts

• Close to west point
• End lot
• Private bathroom

Tags

• END LOT
• BRIGHT AND AIRY OPEN LAYOUT
• WHITE KITCHEN CABINETS
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO WEST POINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $83k (16.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.8% in Orange Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#972 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newburgh City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.

Recommended offer $83,162 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,721
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 6.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Square Hill Rd #29	0.08mi	2/1.0	864 (+10%)	12mo	$98,000	$113	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-22,806
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-26,302
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12553

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,498/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$1,165
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,349

Max offer price $83,162

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-47	-5% $-81	+0% $-116	+5% $-150	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-203	+0% $-116	+5% $-29	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $-65	-0.5pp $-90	base $-116	+0.5pp $-142	+1.0pp $-168

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1000 Clark St New Windsor, NY	1.0	1.0	859	$2,075	$2.42	15d	1	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,165 · $13,980/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-01-21
    listed $99,900 Active 904-char remark

    Show marketing remark (904 chars)

    Amazing end lot with privacy! Imagine your bright and modern new home, ready this spring! This lovely home offers comfort, convenience and affordability. The home features a bright and airy open layout. The kitchen cabinets are white and it offers a crisp contemporary feel with tons of cabinets and appliances. You'll find two nice bedrooms situated on opposite ends of the home, offering privacy. The primary bedrooms features its own private bathroom. Enjoy a super convenient location – just a quick 5-minute drive to town and less than 10 minutes to both I-84 and I-87. Plus, you're only about an hour from the New York City! This spot is also close to West Point, Stewart Airport, the Beacon Bridge, the Newburgh-Beacon Ferry, Metro-North, and both major highways. Please note: The photos shown may be of a similar home from the same manufacturer. The home is on order and is expected soon!

18. 2026-01-10
    historical
19. 2025-07-09
    listed $99,900 Active
20. 2024-02-02
    historical
21. 2024-01-30
    historical $1,500
22. 2023-12-27
    listed $1,500
23. 2016-04-28
    listed $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,498
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − HOA: −$13,980
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$2,282
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$548
• After-tax cash flow: $-840/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with a fresh paint job and modern appliances. It's ready for a new owner and could benefit from some exterior painting and flooring updates to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value
• Both Replace countertops — Granite countertops are durable and add value
• Both Replace flooring — Hardwood flooring is durable and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Replace countertops — Granite countertops are durable and add value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Hardwood flooring is durable and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — Orange Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #972
• US rank: #18993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,384
• Household income: $92,757
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.96%
• Current HPI: 314.8506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+301.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Listed $99,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Listed $99,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-30 Rental Removed $1,500 ONEKEY
• 2023-12-27 Listed for Rent $1,500 ONEKEY
• 2016-04-28 Listed $24,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid