3865 15th Ave S

St. Petersburg, FL 33711

$295,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,381 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,707/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $91/mo
• Annual: $1,091/yr
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.32%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (8.2% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $271k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fairmount Park Elementary School (math 21% / reading 15%, grade F, #2,115 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 500 students, 91% FRL); Azalea Middle School (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #503 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 678 students, 74% FRL); Gibbs High School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,160 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 269 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $64k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $295k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,707/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 903% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.