416 Main St

Vader, WA 98593

$183,350D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 2002 · Other · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,435/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$962
• Tax + insurance: −$681
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-509/mo
• Annual: $-6,113/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.94%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $51,338

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $183k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-509 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $93k (49.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (49.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#445 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Castle Rock School District (town): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #174 of 291 in WA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $183k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.6% in Vader — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?