416 Main St · Vader, WA 98593

$183,350

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Other public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2002 0.32 ac lot $106/sqft · 43% below area Est $320k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a project with promise? This Vader fixer-upper sits on a large lot with plenty of possibilities! Boasting 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and open living space, there’s room for the whole crew once refreshed. Enjoy the charm of a small community with the convenience of quick I-5 access to Chehalis or Longview. With some sweat equity, this could be the perfect place to call home—or your next investment win. Bring your vision and tools as this one’s ready for transformation!—Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Large lot
• Small community
• Quick i-5 access

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• QUICK I-5 ACCESS
• SMALL COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $183k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-509 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $93k (49.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $93k (49.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.6% in Vader — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#445 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Castle Rock School District (town): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #174 of 291 in WA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $183k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,359 (49.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.94%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,000
• List price: $183,350
• Delta: -42.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-27,546
• Equity at exit: $63,888

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-28,801
• Equity at exit: $85,912

Cash invested: $51,338 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98593

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,435 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$962
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,139/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,079

Max offer price $93,359

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,838
• Closing costs: $5,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $183,350 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $183,350 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $183,350 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $183,350 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $183,350 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $183,350 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $183,350 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $183,350 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $183,350 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $183,350 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $183,350 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $183,350 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $183,350 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $183,350 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $183,350 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $183,350 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $183,350 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    price $183,350
19. 2026-03-20
    listed $193,000 Active
20. 2008-03-10
    soldstatus $120,000
21. 2008-02-05
    historical
22. 2008-01-25
    listed $120,000
23. 2008-01-04
    soldstatus $114,490

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,139 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,139 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,270
• − Property taxes: −$2,139
• − Insurance: −$6,035
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,377
• − Management: −$1,377
• − Depreciation: −$5,334
• Taxable loss: −$9,318
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,236
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Castle Rock School District
• NCES district ID: 5300990
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,823
• Composite: 41.78/100
• National rank: #7162
• State rank: #174 of 291 in WA

Livability — Vader

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #445
• US rank: #18163

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vader, WA
• Population (ZIP): 1,676

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Native American 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Hungarian 7% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Current HPI: 260.68
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+60.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $183,350 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $193,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-10 Sold (MLS) $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-05 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-25 Listed $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $114,490 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,139 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.