438 Saint Mary St

Burlington, NJ 08016

$172,500B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,359 sqft · Built 1900 · Townhouse · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,362/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$905
• Tax + insurance: −$303
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $658/mo
• Annual: $7,900/yr
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.36%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.37%
• Cash to close: $48,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $658 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#89 in NJ, #2,359 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Burlington City Public School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #439 of 472 in NJ (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 13 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $172k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.9% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.