438 Saint Mary St · Burlington, NJ 08016

$172,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,359 sqft · Townhouse public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1900 3,780 sqft lot Est $241k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large End Unit. 3 Bedrooms 1 Bath, unfinished basement with laundry, fenced side yard. Located close to the Delaware River Ambiance and downtown eateries. Great investment property, currently rented on a month to month.

Key facts

• Fenced side yard
• Unfinished basement
• Built 1900

Tags

• FENCED SIDE YARD
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• EASY ACCESS TO TRENTON
• EASY ACCESS TO PHILADELPHIA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas hot water
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: End of row townhouse; Above-grade living area reported by assessor

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Unfinished basement

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $172,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$240,543) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $658 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 4.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#89 in NJ, #2,359 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Burlington City Public School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #439 of 472 in NJ (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 13 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $172k implies a 110% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $172,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.36%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,543
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
474 Saint Mary St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,400 (+3%)	3mo	$262,000	$187	86
133 E Federal St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+1%)	2mo	$235,000	$171	85
506 Linden Ave	0.12mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,418 (+4%)	1mo	$229,900	$162	79
310 York St	0.22mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,398 (+3%)	4mo	$285,500	$204	75
127 W Federal St	0.41mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,408 (+4%)	0mo	$255,000	$181	70
129 W Union St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,330 (-2%)	5mo	$239,000	$180	69
104 Juniper St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,310 (-4%)	5mo	$239,000	$182	67
505 Lawrence St	0.18mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,238 (-9%)	5mo	$199,900	$161	67
511 Linden Ave	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,504 (+11%)	2mo	$140,000	$93	61
407 Wood St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,500 (+10%)	6mo	$180,000	$120	60
18 E 4th St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,400 (+3%)	3mo	$235,000	$168	59
318 Mott Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,302 (-4%)	2mo	$230,000	$177	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $14,023
• Equity at exit: $25,720

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $66,386
• Equity at exit: $14,915

Cash invested: $48,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08016

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,362 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$905
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,776/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $658

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,529

Max offer price $172,500

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $756	-5% $707	+0% $658	+5% $610	+10% $561
Rent	-10% $472	-5% $565	+0% $658	+5% $752	+10% $845
Rate	-1.0pp $745	-0.5pp $702	base $658	+0.5pp $614	+1.0pp $568

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,125
• Closing costs: $5,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
302 Jones Ave Burlington, NJ	2.0	1.0	1050	$2,000	$1.90	5d	1	0.07mi
341 Clarkson St Burlington, NJ	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,800	$2.59	1d	1	0.08mi
405 Lawrence St Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.0	1859	$2,000	$1.08	5d	1	0.16mi
516 Columbus Rd Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,750	$1.72	15d	1	0.28mi
516 Columbus Rd Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.0	1404	$2,400	$1.71	1d	1	0.28mi
328 High St Unit 2A Burlington, NJ	3.0	1.5	1200	$2,345	$1.95	12d	1	0.33mi
328 High St Unit 2B Burlington, NJ	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,345	$1.95	12d	1	0.33mi
229 High St Burlington, NJ	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,975	$1.65	19d	1	0.38mi
104 Juniper St Burlington, NJ	2.0	1.0	1310	$1,800	$1.37	24d	1	0.41mi
103 W Union St Burlington, NJ	4.0	2.5	1333	$2,200	$1.65	15d	1	0.48mi
105 W Union St Burlington, NJ	4.0	1.5	1645	$2,000	$1.22	2d	1	0.48mi
806 High St Burlington, NJ	3.0	1.0	1376	$2,100	$1.53	19d	1	0.62mi
1201 High St Burlington, NJ	3.0	1.0	1064	$2,100	$1.97	24d	1	0.77mi
1001 Armistice Dr Burlington, NJ	3.0	1.0	884	$2,300	$2.60	24d	1	0.89mi
115 Cedar St Unit 2 Bristol, PA	3.0	1.0	1700	$2,600	$1.53	1d	1	1.29mi
234 Franklin St Unit 1st Floor Bristol, PA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	5d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,500 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $172,500 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,500 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,500 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,500 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $172,500 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 628-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   listed $172,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,776 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,535 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: +$760/yr (+$63/mo · 27.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,663
• − Property taxes: −$2,776
• − Insurance: −$862
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,268
• − Management: −$2,268
• − Depreciation: −$5,018
• Taxable income: $5,492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,318
• After-tax cash flow: $6,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burlington City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3402430
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,122
• Composite: 16.27/100
• National rank: #9218
• State rank: #439 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #2359

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, NJ
• County: Burlington County · 323,710 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 34,920
• Household income: $98,463
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 33% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.42%
• Current HPI: 298.7935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+108.1% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $172,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-20 Sold (MLS) $82,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-04 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-09-01 Listed $98,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-08-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-19 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-24 Price Changed $98,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-17 Price Changed $101,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-01-02 Listed $103,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $69,100 Public Records
• 2011-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records
• 2010-11-21 Sold (MLS) $29,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-11-21 Sold (MLS) $29,000 TREND
• 2010-10-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-08-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $14,237 Public Records
• 2010-05-25 Listed $42,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-05-25 Listed $32,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-05-25 Listed $32,900 TREND
• 2008-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-06-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-05-18 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-08-08 Listed $149,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-27 Sold (MLS) $126,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-09-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-08-03 Listed $126,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $76,900 Public Records
• 2001-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $76,900 Public Records
• 2001-10-31 Sold (MLS) $76,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-10-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-08-15 Listed $76,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-06-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-06-21 Listed $76,899 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-06-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-06-17 Listed $82,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,776 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.