16741 Briceland Rd

Shelter Cove, CA 95589

$150,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,616/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $240/mo
• Annual: $2,881/yr
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.86%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,268 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, housing D.
• Southern Humboldt Joint Unified (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #928 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 1.6% in Shelter Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major: exterior siding — The exterior siding shows signs of weathering and discoloration.
• Major: flooring — The flooring appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major: interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint show signs of wear and tear.
• Major: landscaping/curb appeal — The landscaping and curb appeal are poor, with overgrown vegetation and a lack of maintenance.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — The HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.