84 Natchez Rd

Preston, TX 75076

$260,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 138 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,817/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-232/mo
• Annual: $-2,779/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.82%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (30.1% below list).
• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,306 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Pottsboro ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #288 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 13 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 14344% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.9% in Preston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.