84 Natchez Rd · Preston, TX 75076

$260,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 1965 0.64 ac lot $145/sqft · 5% below area Est $324k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.64 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.9% in Preston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,306 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Pottsboro ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #288 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask is 14344% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,748 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.82%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,637
• List price: $260,000
• Delta: -19.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
127 Graves Cir	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,722 (-4%)	3mo	$353,000	$205	68
434 Crescent Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,634 (-9%)	2mo	$349,900	$214	56
891 Lazy Acres Cir	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,872 (+4%)	8mo	$415,000	$222	55
16 Cedar Bayou Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,996 (+11%)	12mo	$380,000	$190	54
29 Pin Oak Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,729 (-4%)	10mo	$329,000	$190	53
276 Graves Cir	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,908 (+6%)	21mo	$499,900	$262	45
194 Graves Cir	0.55mi	3/3.0	1,901 (+6%)	23mo	$645,000	$339	42
396 Highland Acres Cir	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,660 (-7%)	23mo	$150,000	$90	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-56,933
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-68,780
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75076

• Home prices YoY: -17.3%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,817 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,347/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,111

Max offer price $219,090

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $260,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $260,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-01-14
   listed $1,800
4. 2026-01-13
   listed $260,000 Active
5. 2026-01-01
   historical $1,850
6. 2025-12-31
   historical
7. 2025-08-30
   price $1,850
8. 2025-06-19
   listed $2,000
9. 2025-06-02
   listed $260,000 Active
10. 2025-03-20
    historical
11. 2025-02-20
    price $160,000
12. 2025-02-12
    price $164,900
13. 2025-01-28
    price $167,000
14. 2025-01-24
    price $170,000
15. 2025-01-21
    price $175,000
16. 2025-01-08
    price $177,000
17. 2025-01-06
    price $199,000
18. 2024-12-30
    price $215,000
19. 2024-12-23
    listed $225,000 Active
20. 2020-08-03
    historical
21. 2020-02-13
    listed $215,000 Active
22. 2020-01-24
    historical
23. 2019-07-23
    listed $215,000 Active
24. 2017-03-21
    soldstatus
25. 2016-06-30
    soldstatus
26. 2015-10-01
    historical
27. 2015-05-22
    price $85,000
28. 2014-09-10
    listed $99,000 Active
29. 2014-07-08
    historical
30. 2014-01-09
    listed $95,000 Active
31. 2013-07-09
    historical
32. 2012-12-03
    listed $112,000 Active
33. 2012-02-20
    historical
34. 2012-02-06
    price $75,000
35. 2011-09-19
    price $89,000 Active
36. 2011-09-19
    status Active
37. 2011-09-19
    historical
38. 2011-07-06
    price $112,000
39. 2011-02-24
    listed $122,112 Active
40. 2006-07-05
    soldstatus
41. 2006-06-30
    soldstatus
42. 2006-03-31
    historical
43. 2005-07-24
    listed $105,000
44. 1997-01-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,347 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,758 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,411/yr (+$201/mo · 102.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$2,347
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,745
• − Management: −$1,745
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$7,455
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,789
• After-tax cash flow: $-990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pottsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835580
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $50,811
• Composite: 37.44/100
• National rank: #4414
• State rank: #288 of 826 in TX

Livability — Preston

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1306
• US rank: #22637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Preston, TX
• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,989
• Household income: $76,919
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 169.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Scottish 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.29%
• Current HPI: 244.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-98.3% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed for Rent $1,800 NTREIS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $260,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $1,850 NTREIS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-30 Price Changed $1,850 NTREIS
• 2025-06-19 Listed for Rent $2,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $260,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $164,900 NTREIS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $167,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-24 Price Changed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-08 Price Changed $177,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-30 Price Changed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2024-12-23 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2020-08-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2020-02-13 Listed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2020-01-24 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2019-07-23 Listed $215,000 NTREIS
• 2017-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2015-05-22 Price Changed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2014-09-10 Listed $99,000 NTREIS
• 2014-07-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2014-01-09 Listed $95,000 NTREIS
• 2013-07-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2012-12-03 Listed $112,000 NTREIS
• 2012-02-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2012-02-06 Price Changed $75,000 NTREIS
• 2011-09-19 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2011-09-19 Price Changed $89,000 NTREIS
• 2011-09-19 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2011-07-06 Price Changed $112,000 NTREIS
• 2011-02-24 Listed $122,112 NTREIS
• 2006-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-06-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2006-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-07-24 Listed $105,000 NTREIS
• 1997-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,347 · -28.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.