2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
662 sqft ·
Built 1981
· Condo
· Pending
· 300 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,187/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$524
Tax + insurance
−$258
HOA
−$322
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$249
Net cashflow
$-166/mo
Annual
$-1,996/yr
Cap rate
4.30%
Cash-on-cash
-7.14%
DSCR
0.68
1% rule
1.19%
Cash to close
$27,972
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $100k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-166 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $71k (29.4% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $71k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in TX, #2,697 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
Arlington ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #629 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Ellis El (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 757 students, 84% FRL); Nichols J H (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 692 students, 83% FRL); Lamar H S (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 2,546 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 60% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; HOA is 27% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 91 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 7735% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $12k; list at $100k implies a 711% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
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