21613 S 154th St

Gilbert, AZ 85298

$1,590,000D

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,364 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Active · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,510/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,338
• Tax + insurance: −$928
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$737
• Net cashflow: $-6,493/mo
• Annual: $-77,913/yr
• Cap rate: 1.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.50%
• DSCR: 0.22
• 1% rule: 0.22%
• Cash to close: $445,200

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.59M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-78k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $443k (72.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $351k (77.9% below list).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $351k (77.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $144k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $133k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$231k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 78% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.