21613 S 154th St · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$1,590,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1983 1.00 ac lot $673/sqft · 86% above area Est $2063k · 23% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This newly expanded county island estate sits on a full one-acre horse property and offers a rare combination of space, flexibility, and recent high-quality improvements. The home now totals approximately 5,700 sq ft of living space, plus a 900 sq ft garage, following a 3,200 sq ft addition that received final county approval last month. The original portion of the home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and offers exceptional living space with two separate family rooms, including one highlighted by large vaulted ceilings and a cozy fireplace. This area has been thoughtfully updated with a brand-new kitchen, new flooring in most rooms, and a new water heater. The home has also been re-insulated in both the roof and walls, fully stucco and painted, and outfitted with window screens throughout enhancing comfort and efficiency. The newly constructed section offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms and was designed with both function and style in mind. This addition includes a generously sized family room, ideal for gatherings or everyday living, along with a large kitchen featuring modern finishes and contemporary touches. Built with 2x6 construction, full spray-foam insulation, and individual mini-split systems in every room, the new section delivers outstanding energy efficiency and year-round comfort. A larger garage and a well-designed next-gen or mother-in-law suite layout provide privacy and flexibility for multi-generational living, guests, or rental potential. With 6 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms total, expansive living areas, modern systems, and a true acre of land with horse privileges, this property combines the freedom of county island living with substantial recent upgrades making it a standout opportunity for those seeking space, versatility, and long-term value.sc

Key facts

• Re-insulated walls
• New kitchen
• Re-insulated roof

Tags

• ONE ACRE HORSE PROPERTY
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW WATER HEATER
• RE-INSULATED ROOF
• RE-INSULATED WALLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.59M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-78k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $443k (72.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $351k (77.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $351k (77.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.4% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $144k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $133k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$231k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $351,040 (77.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 78% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.22% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.50%
• DSCR: 0.22
• GRM: 37.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,062,698
• List price: $1,590,000
• Delta: -22.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5724 S Boulder St	0.61mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,378 (+1%)	14mo	$679,000	$286	50
1518 E Tiffany Way	0.58mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,378 (+1%)	15mo	$701,806	$295	50
1553 E Blue Spruce Ln	0.42mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,403 (+2%)	23mo	$670,000	$279	50
1571 E Tiffany Way	0.56mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,551 (+8%)	9mo	$699,000	$274	44
15834 E Ocotillo Rd	0.55mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,691 (+14%)	5mo	$835,000	$310	38
1462 E Tiffany Ct	0.63mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,551 (+8%)	14mo	$688,461	$270	37
1565 E Tiffany Way	0.57mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,640 (+12%)	10mo	$758,016	$287	36
1427 E Blue Spruce Ln	0.56mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,550 (+8%)	23mo	$699,000	$274	32
5723 S Granite St	0.62mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,640 (+12%)	18mo	$699,733	$265	27
1456 E Tiffany Ct	0.63mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,640 (+12%)	18mo	$720,000	$273	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $282,243
• Equity at exit: $1,247,434

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $1,136,596
• Equity at exit: $2,514,765

Cash invested: $445,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 37.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,338
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,184/yr
• Insurance: −$662
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$737
• Net cashflow: $-6,493

Break-even live

Break-even rent $11,729

Max offer price $443,022

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5,593	-5% $-6,043	+0% $-6,493	+5% $-8,764	+10% $-9,314
Rent	-10% $-6,770	-5% $-6,631	+0% $-6,493	+5% $-6,354	+10% $-6,215
Rate	-1.0pp $-5,692	-0.5pp $-6,088	base $-6,493	+0.5pp $-6,905	+1.0pp $-7,324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $397,500
• Closing costs: $47,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1533 E Sourwood Ct Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2750	$3,300	$1.20	44d	1	0.43mi
1094 E Sourwood Dr Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	3059	$2,799	$0.92	44d	1	0.95mi
4146 E Glacier Pl Chandler, AZ	5.0	3.0	3240	$3,299	$1.02	22d	1	1.25mi
1544 E Hummingbird Way Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2771	$2,895	$1.04	4d	1	1.45mi
6071 S Rockwell St Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.0	2375	$2,695	$1.13	17d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,590,000 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,590,000 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,590,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,590,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,590,000 Active 146 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,590,000 Active 145 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,590,000 Active 144 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    price $1,590,000 1800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1800 chars)

    This newly expanded county island estate sits on a full one-acre horse property and offers a rare combination of space, flexibility, and recent high-quality improvements. The home now totals approximately 5,700 sq ft of living space, plus a 900 sq ft garage, following a 3,200 sq ft addition that received final county approval last month. The original portion of the home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and offers exceptional living space with two separate family rooms, including one highlighted by large vaulted ceilings and a cozy fireplace. This area has been thoughtfully updated with a brand-new kitchen, new flooring in most rooms, and a new water heater. The home has also been re-insulated in both the roof and walls, fully stucco and painted, and outfitted with window screens throughout enhancing comfort and efficiency. The newly constructed section offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms and was designed with both function and style in mind. This addition includes a generously sized family room, ideal for gatherings or everyday living, along with a large kitchen featuring modern finishes and contemporary touches. Built with 2x6 construction, full spray-foam insulation, and individual mini-split systems in every room, the new section delivers outstanding energy efficiency and year-round comfort. A larger garage and a well-designed next-gen or mother-in-law suite layout provide privacy and flexibility for multi-generational living, guests, or rental potential. With 6 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms total, expansive living areas, modern systems, and a true acre of land with horse privileges, this property combines the freedom of county island living with substantial recent upgrades making it a standout opportunity for those seeking space, versatility, and long-term value.sc

17. 2026-01-07
    listed $1,650,000 Active 1800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1800 chars)

    This newly expanded county island estate sits on a full one-acre horse property and offers a rare combination of space, flexibility, and recent high-quality improvements. The home now totals approximately 5,700 sq ft of living space, plus a 900 sq ft garage, following a 3,200 sq ft addition that received final county approval last month. The original portion of the home features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and offers exceptional living space with two separate family rooms, including one highlighted by large vaulted ceilings and a cozy fireplace. This area has been thoughtfully updated with a brand-new kitchen, new flooring in most rooms, and a new water heater. The home has also been re-insulated in both the roof and walls, fully stucco and painted, and outfitted with window screens throughout enhancing comfort and efficiency. The newly constructed section offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms and was designed with both function and style in mind. This addition includes a generously sized family room, ideal for gatherings or everyday living, along with a large kitchen featuring modern finishes and contemporary touches. Built with 2x6 construction, full spray-foam insulation, and individual mini-split systems in every room, the new section delivers outstanding energy efficiency and year-round comfort. A larger garage and a well-designed next-gen or mother-in-law suite layout provide privacy and flexibility for multi-generational living, guests, or rental potential. With 6 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms total, expansive living areas, modern systems, and a true acre of land with horse privileges, this property combines the freedom of county island living with substantial recent upgrades making it a standout opportunity for those seeking space, versatility, and long-term value.sc

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,184 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,494 · $874/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,310/yr (+$609/mo · 229.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,065
• − Property taxes: −$3,184
• − Insurance: −$7,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,370
• − Management: −$3,370
• − Depreciation: −$46,255
• Taxable loss: −$111,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$26,657
• After-tax cash flow: $-51,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $1,590,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $1,650,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,184 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.