434 Elf Trl

Bassett, VA 24055

$139,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,037/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $-1/mo
• Annual: $-11/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-11/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (25.4% below list).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#348 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Patrick County Public School District (rural): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #18 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Patrick Springs Primary (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 256 students, 76% FRL); Hardin Reynolds Memorial School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #65 of 342 statewide, top 21%, 217 students, 82% FRL); Patrick County High (math 66% / reading 76%, grade B+, #146 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 851 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 45% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Patrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Patrick County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $139k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Bassett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.