434 Elf Trl · Bassett, VA 24055

$139,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1990 0.46 ac lot $136/sqft · 6% above area Est $131k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute 3 Bedroom Brick rancher in quiet country setting. Home has full unfinished basement & front porch. New interior doors & light fixtures. Neutral paint colors throughout. Laminate and carpet floors. A new breaker box and water lines have been installed. Situated on a nice lot with a paved asphalt driveway. note: Listing agent is related to seller

Key facts

• Front porch
• Light fixtures
• New interior doors

Tags

• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• FRONT PORCH
• NEW INTERIOR DOORS
• LIGHT FIXTURES
• PAVED ASPHALT DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-11/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Bassett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#348 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Patrick County Public School District (rural): math 69% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #18 of 131 in VA (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Patrick Springs Primary (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 256 students, 76% FRL); Hardin Reynolds Memorial School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #65 of 342 statewide, top 21%, 217 students, 82% FRL); Patrick County High (math 66% / reading 76%, grade B+, #146 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 851 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 45% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Patrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Patrick County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $139k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,693 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,849
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: 6.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
126 Bartlow Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+2%)	2mo	$218,500	$210	87
77 Mapleridge Rd	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	966 (-6%)	7mo	$130,000	$135	54
175 Peach Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,096 (+7%)	4mo	$130,000	$119	53
319 Maple Ridge Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0	950 (-7%)	2mo	$148,900	$157	53
113 Cedar St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+6%)	3mo	$145,000	$133	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-22,651
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-20,083
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24055

• Home prices YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $398/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,038

Max offer price $138,844

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $78	-5% $38	+0% $-1	+5% $-40	+10% $-80
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-42	+0% $-1	+5% $40	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $34	base $-1	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Active 363-char remark

   Show marketing remark (363 chars)

   Cute 3 Bedroom Brick rancher in quiet country setting. Home has full unfinished basement & front porch. New interior doors & light fixtures. Neutral paint colors throughout. Laminate and carpet floors. A new breaker box and water lines have been installed. Situated on a nice lot with a paved asphalt driveway. note: Listing agent is related to seller

2. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract 363-char remark

   Show marketing remark (363 chars)

   Cute 3 Bedroom Brick rancher in quiet country setting. Home has full unfinished basement & front porch. New interior doors & light fixtures. Neutral paint colors throughout. Laminate and carpet floors. A new breaker box and water lines have been installed. Situated on a nice lot with a paved asphalt driveway. note: Listing agent is related to seller

3. 2026-02-05
   status Active 363-char remark

   Show marketing remark (363 chars)

   Cute 3 Bedroom Brick rancher in quiet country setting. Home has full unfinished basement & front porch. New interior doors & light fixtures. Neutral paint colors throughout. Laminate and carpet floors. A new breaker box and water lines have been installed. Situated on a nice lot with a paved asphalt driveway. note: Listing agent is related to seller

4. 2026-01-21
   historical Active Under Contract 363-char remark

   Show marketing remark (363 chars)

   Cute 3 Bedroom Brick rancher in quiet country setting. Home has full unfinished basement & front porch. New interior doors & light fixtures. Neutral paint colors throughout. Laminate and carpet floors. A new breaker box and water lines have been installed. Situated on a nice lot with a paved asphalt driveway. note: Listing agent is related to seller

5. 2026-01-14
   listed $139,000 Active 363-char remark

   Show marketing remark (363 chars)

   Cute 3 Bedroom Brick rancher in quiet country setting. Home has full unfinished basement & front porch. New interior doors & light fixtures. Neutral paint colors throughout. Laminate and carpet floors. A new breaker box and water lines have been installed. Situated on a nice lot with a paved asphalt driveway. note: Listing agent is related to seller

6. 2025-12-10
   soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $398 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,140 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$741/yr (+$62/mo · 186.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$398
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$995
• − Management: −$995
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$2,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$593
• After-tax cash flow: $582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patrick County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102880
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,331
• Composite: 60.52/100
• National rank: #842
• State rank: #18 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bassett

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #13854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,520
• Population (ZIP): 11,520

Population outlook (Patrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,918 people
• By 2030: 16,097 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,317 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 12,476 · -26.3%
• By 2075: 9,051 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 6,138 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Patrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -30.6pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+30.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.19%
• Current HPI: 217.0023
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+178.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Relisted — MHPCAR
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — MHPCAR
• 2026-02-05 Relisted — MHPCAR
• 2026-01-21 Contingent — MHPCAR
• 2026-01-14 Listed $139,000 MHPCAR
• 2025-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $398 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.