81 Beech Point Dr

Cadiz, KY 42211

$605,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,862/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,173
• Tax + insurance: −$581
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-2,283/mo
• Annual: $-27,399/yr
• Cap rate: 1.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.17%
• DSCR: 0.28
• 1% rule: 0.31%
• Cash to close: $169,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $605k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-27k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (66.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (69.2% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($587k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (69.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#354 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Trigg County (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #90 of 165 in KY (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Trigg County Primary School (516 students, 66% FRL); Trigg County Middle School (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 440 students, 60% FRL); Trigg County High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 617 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Trigg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Trigg County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $475k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 3.6% in Cadiz — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 69% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?