81 Beech Point Dr · Cadiz, KY 42211

$605,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

1.75 ac lot $336/sqft · waterfront premium Est $442k · 37% over · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.8/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

From quiet weekends to full-time waterfront living, this Lake Barkley home truly has it all. Spacious 5-bedroom, 3½-bath waterfront home is designed for lake life. Private dock, full kitchens on both levels, and room for entertainment make this a great Short Term Rental option with established rental history. Step inside to open living spaces with beautiful water views. The main level features a bright, airy great room, updated kitchen, and a comfortable primary suite all flowing onto a deck that overlooks the lake. The lower level adds a full second kitchen, family room, and walk-out patio perfect for guests, extended family, or multi-generation living. Outside, you'll find plenty of room for all your lake toys with a 2-car detached garage with a carport, offering covered storage for boats, or extra vehicles. The private year round deep water dock makes getting on the water effortless whether it’s an early morning fishing trip or a sunset cruise.

Key facts

• Walk-out patio
• Waterfront home
• Private dock

Tags

• WATERFRONT HOME
• PRIVATE DOCK
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• DECK OVERLOOKS LAKE
• WALK-OUT PATIO
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $605k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-27k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (66.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (69.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (69.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 3.6% in Cadiz — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#354 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Trigg County (town): math 23% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #90 of 165 in KY (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 302 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Trigg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trigg County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($587k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $475k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,154 (69.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 69% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.31% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.17%
• DSCR: 0.28
• GRM: 27.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $441,604
• List price: $605,000
• Delta: 37.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Cedar Pt	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,709 (-5%)	22mo	$225,000	$132	64
246 Cherry Bay Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+4%)	11mo	$440,000	$234	50
200 Cherokee Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (+3%)	13mo	$325,000	$175	42
361 Pollard Cir	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-13%)	11mo	$381,500	$243	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -48.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-243,694
• Equity at exit: $90,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -93.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.36×
• Total profit: $-400,412
• Equity at exit: $52,309

Cash invested: $169,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42211

• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 27.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,862 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,173
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,950/yr
• Insurance: −$252
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-2,283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,752

Max offer price $201,649

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,941	-5% $-2,112	+0% $-2,283	+5% $-2,455	+10% $-2,626
Rent	-10% $-2,430	-5% $-2,357	+0% $-2,283	+5% $-2,210	+10% $-2,136
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,979	-0.5pp $-2,129	base $-2,283	+0.5pp $-2,440	+1.0pp $-2,600

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $151,250
• Closing costs: $18,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 974-char remark

   Show marketing remark (974 chars)

   From quiet weekends to full-time waterfront living, this Lake Barkley home truly has it all. Spacious 5-bedroom, 3½-bath waterfront home is designed for lake life. Private dock, full kitchens on both levels, and room for entertainment make this a great Short Term Rental option with established rental history. Step inside to open living spaces with beautiful water views. The main level features a bright, airy great room, updated kitchen, and a comfortable primary suite all flowing onto a deck that overlooks the lake. The lower level adds a full second kitchen, family room, and walk-out patio perfect for guests, extended family, or multi-generation living. Outside, you'll find plenty of room for all your lake toys with a 2-car detached garage with a carport, offering covered storage for boats, or extra vehicles. The private year round deep water dock makes getting on the water effortless whether it’s an early morning fishing trip or a sunset cruise.

2. 2026-04-17
   price $605,000 974-char remark

   Show marketing remark (974 chars)

   From quiet weekends to full-time waterfront living, this Lake Barkley home truly has it all. Spacious 5-bedroom, 3½-bath waterfront home is designed for lake life. Private dock, full kitchens on both levels, and room for entertainment make this a great Short Term Rental option with established rental history. Step inside to open living spaces with beautiful water views. The main level features a bright, airy great room, updated kitchen, and a comfortable primary suite all flowing onto a deck that overlooks the lake. The lower level adds a full second kitchen, family room, and walk-out patio perfect for guests, extended family, or multi-generation living. Outside, you'll find plenty of room for all your lake toys with a 2-car detached garage with a carport, offering covered storage for boats, or extra vehicles. The private year round deep water dock makes getting on the water effortless whether it’s an early morning fishing trip or a sunset cruise.

3. 2026-03-27
   listed $615,000 Active 974-char remark

   Show marketing remark (974 chars)

   From quiet weekends to full-time waterfront living, this Lake Barkley home truly has it all. Spacious 5-bedroom, 3½-bath waterfront home is designed for lake life. Private dock, full kitchens on both levels, and room for entertainment make this a great Short Term Rental option with established rental history. Step inside to open living spaces with beautiful water views. The main level features a bright, airy great room, updated kitchen, and a comfortable primary suite all flowing onto a deck that overlooks the lake. The lower level adds a full second kitchen, family room, and walk-out patio perfect for guests, extended family, or multi-generation living. Outside, you'll find plenty of room for all your lake toys with a 2-car detached garage with a carport, offering covered storage for boats, or extra vehicles. The private year round deep water dock makes getting on the water effortless whether it’s an early morning fishing trip or a sunset cruise.

4. 2025-11-10
   listed $649,000 Active
5. 2024-10-23
   soldstatus $475,000
6. 2024-09-30
   status Pending
7. 2024-09-30
   status Pending
8. 2024-09-30
   status Pending
9. 2024-09-30
   status Pending
10. 2024-09-30
    status Pending
11. 2024-09-30
    soldstatus $475,000 Closed
12. 2024-09-30
    soldstatus $475,000 Closed
13. 2024-09-30
    soldstatus $475,000 Closed
14. 2024-09-30
    soldstatus $475,000 Closed
15. 2024-09-30
    soldstatus $475,000 Closed
16. 2024-09-30
    listed $475,000 Active
17. 2020-05-18
    soldstatus $300,000
18. 2019-01-03
    listed $369,000
19. 2017-01-31
    soldstatus $300,000
20. 2016-01-16
    listed $329,900
21. 2015-02-10
    soldstatus $275,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,950 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,203 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,254/yr (+$104/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,338
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,889
• − Property taxes: −$3,950
• − Insurance: −$3,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,787
• − Management: −$1,787
• − Depreciation: −$17,600
• Taxable loss: −$39,700
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,528
• After-tax cash flow: $-17,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trigg County
• NCES district ID: 2105580
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $44,636
• Composite: 26.87/100
• National rank: #7100
• State rank: #90 of 165 in KY

Livability — Cadiz

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #354
• US rank: #16772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,912

Population outlook (Trigg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,071 people
• By 2030: 13,950 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 13,575 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 13,065 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 11,990 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 10,802 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 7% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trigg

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.2% · R 75.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -29.8pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+49.6 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+29.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.15%
• Current HPI: 130.8351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+120.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — WKRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $605,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $615,000 WKRMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $649,000 WKRMLS
• 2024-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $475,000 Public Records
• 2024-09-30 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Sold (MLS) $475,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Sold (MLS) $475,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Sold (MLS) $475,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Sold (MLS) $475,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Sold (MLS) $475,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Listed $475,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-03 Listed $369,000 WKRMLS
• 2017-01-31 Sold (MLS) $300,000 WKRMLS
• 2016-01-16 Listed $329,900 WKRMLS
• 2015-02-10 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,950 · +61.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.