Brett Plan

Midlothian, TX 76065

$399,990D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,318 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 192 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,362/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,236
• Tax + insurance: −$711
• HOA: −$71
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$706
• Net cashflow: $-362/mo
• Annual: $-4,340/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.64%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $119,388

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-362 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $374k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $336k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: T E Baxter El (math 49% / reading 48%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 600 students, 37% FRL); Walnut Grove Middle (math 57% / reading 56%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 992 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); tight market (median 1 DOM); 1408 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 48d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.