Brett Plan · Midlothian, TX 76065

$399,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,318 sqft · SingleFamily · 238 Days on market

Good condition $71/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A welcoming front porch invites you in to enjoy the open layout of this single story home featuring 3 bedrooms with an option to flex up to a 4th bedroom or use the space as an office.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Open layout
• Flex room

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN LAYOUT
• FLEX ROOM
• COVERED OUTDOOR LIVING

🏗️ New construction. The $399,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $425,820.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-439 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $362k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: T E Baxter El (math 49% / reading 48%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 600 students, 37% FRL); Walnut Grove Middle (math 57% / reading 56%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 992 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); tight market (median 1 DOM); 1581 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,923 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $425,820
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: -6.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2445 Hitchford St	0.16mi	3/2.0	2,252 (-3%)	5mo	$419,803	$186	81
2446 Pebble Bank Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	2,148 (-7%)	3mo	$399,900	$186	77
4630 Sweeprange Rd	0.36mi	3/3.5	2,262 (-2%)	2mo	$469,900	$208	73
4846 Signal Run Rd	0.21mi	3/2.5	2,532 (+9%)	4mo	$474,900	$188	72
5012 Hillside Green Trl	0.33mi	3/2.5	2,521 (+9%)	1mo	$429,311	$170	69
4809 Signal Run Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,521 (+9%)	6mo	$479,819	$190	68
2449 Hitchford St	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,521 (+9%)	6mo	$469,349	$186	66
2216 Shady Elm Rd	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,565 (+11%)	2mo	$427,020	$166	56
2224 Shady Elm Rd	0.41mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,101 (-9%)	3mo	$419,668	$200	56
3861 Willow Bend Ln	0.60mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,592 (+12%)	1mo	$429,900	$166	42
4609 Clearcrest Rd	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,031 (-12%)	5mo	$489,990	$241	41
4802 Timberdrift St	0.68mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,665 (+15%)	3mo	$574,990	$216	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-92,480
• Equity at exit: $63,491

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-97,666
• Equity at exit: $36,817

Cash invested: $119,230 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 83 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.9 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $479,990 ($201/sqft)
• Median days on market: 191 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Median DOM (565 sales): 1 d
• Active inventory: 1581
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,259 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,233
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$532 /mo · $6,387/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,815

Max offer price $362,303

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-145	-5% $-292	+0% $-439	+5% $-586	+10% $-733
Rent	-10% $-696	-5% $-568	+0% $-439	+5% $-310	+10% $-181
Rate	-1.0pp $-225	-0.5pp $-331	base $-439	+0.5pp $-549	+1.0pp $-662

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,455
• Closing costs: $12,775
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1837 Flowing Ridge Rd Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2028	$3,550	$1.75	0d	1	0.47mi
1825 Rough Ridge Trl Midlothian, TX	4.0	4.5	2994	$4,000	$1.34	71d	1	0.53mi
1810 Hidden Water Trl Midlothian, TX	3.0	3.0	2456	$3,800	$1.55	139d	1	0.58mi
4213 Pasture View Ave Midlothian, TX	4.0	4.5	3026	$3,650	$1.21	82d	1	1.00mi
4021 Alpine St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2311	$3,100	$1.34	94d	1	1.15mi
4017 Alpine St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2311	$3,200	$1.38	24d	1	1.16mi
5225 Rowlan Row Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2996	$3,800	$1.27	0d	1	1.39mi
1017 Greencove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.0	2270	$3,200	$1.41	2d	1	1.45mi
1017 Greencove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	2.0	2270	$3,200	$1.41	0d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $399,990 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $399,990 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $399,990 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $399,990 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $399,990 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $399,990 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $399,990 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $399,990 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $399,990 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $399,990 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $399,990 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $399,990 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $399,990 Active 220 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $399,990 Active 219 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $399,990 Active 217 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $399,990 Active 215 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $399,990 Active 214 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $399,990 Active 213 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $399,990 Active 212 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $399,990 Active 211 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $399,990 Active 209 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $399,990 Active 208 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $399,990 Active 207 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $399,990 Active 206 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $399,990 Active 205 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $399,990 Active 204 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $399,990 Active 203 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $399,990 Active 202 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $399,990 Active 201 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $399,990 Active 200 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $399,990 Active 199 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $399,990 Active 198 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $399,990 Active 197 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $399,990 Active 196 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $399,990 Active 195 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $399,990 Active 194 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $399,990 Active 193 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $399,990 Active 192 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $399,990 Active 190 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $399,990 Active 189 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $399,990 Active 188 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $399,990 Active 187 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $399,990 Active 184 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $399,990 Active 183 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $399,990 Active 182 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $399,990 Active 181 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $399,990 Active 179 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $399,990 Active 177 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $399,990 Active 176 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,853
• − Property taxes: −$6,387
• − Insurance: −$2,129
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,129
• − Management: −$3,129
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$12,388
• Taxable loss: −$12,755
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,061
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,590–$34,770 screening

This single-story home in Midlothian, TX, is in good condition with a good roof and exterior. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Trim landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary T E Baxter El D TX #950/4,322 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Walnut Grove Middle B TX #226/1,662 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Midlothian Heritage H S C TX #315/1,632 Nat'l #3,934/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 194,556 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-28 Listed $399,990 Zillow