220 Mill Creek Rd

Higden, AR 72067

$224,900D

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 229 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,026/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-506/mo
• Annual: $-6,077/yr
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.65%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.46%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-506 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (39.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (54.4% below list).
• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (54.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#236 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• West Side School District (rural): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #118 of 238 in AR (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 14 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.9% in Higden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.