220 Mill Creek Rd · Higden, AR 72067

$224,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 229 Days on market

Built 2010 0.72 ac lot $150/sqft · 18% below area Est $274k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Embrace the ultimate lake lifestyle in this charming ranch home, perfectly situated just half a mile from the water's edge. This turn-key ready retreat offers 1,500 square feet of inviting living space, featuring two comfortable bedrooms and one-and-a-half baths. The bright and airy open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas, establishing an ideal setting for both entertaining guests and quiet relaxation. Large windows bathe the interior in natural light, enhancing the sense of peace and connection to the outdoors. Its versatile appeal makes it a perfect weekend getaway, a serene full-time residence, or a lucrative short-term rental investment. One of the home's most captivating features is the full-length covered front porch, an idyllic spot for sipping morning coffee or unwinding in the evening after a day of adventure. Set on a generous 0.72-acre lot, the property provides ample outdoor space for gardening, recreation, or simply soaking in the peaceful, natural surroundings. With boating, fishing, and kayaking just moments away, this property is your gateway to endless lakeside fun. Priced to sell!

Key facts

• Large windows
• 0.72-acre lot
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• HALF A MILE FROM THE WATER
• TURN-KEY READY RETREAT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE WINDOWS
• 0.72-ACRE LOT
• BOATING FISHING KAYAKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-506 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (39.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (54.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (54.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#236 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing B+, crime B; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• West Side School District (rural): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #118 of 238 in AR (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Cleburne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Cleburne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,624 (54.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.46% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.65%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 18.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,392
• List price: $224,900
• Delta: -18.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Mill Creek Rd	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,500 (0%)	1mo	$223,000	$149	99
145 Howard Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+4%)	1mo	$365,000	$234	65
85 Jimmerson	0.72mi	2/1.5	1,516 (+1%)	8mo	$300,000	$198	58
50 Jackson Rdg	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+8%)	11mo	$294,000	$181	54
175 Jimmerson	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (0%)	7mo	$450,000	$300	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $54,406
• Equity at exit: $164,631

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $181,490
• Equity at exit: $321,020

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72067

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 18.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $528/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,667

Max offer price $135,445

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-379	-5% $-443	+0% $-506	+5% $-570	+10% $-634
Rent	-10% $-587	-5% $-547	+0% $-506	+5% $-466	+10% $-425
Rate	-1.0pp $-393	-0.5pp $-449	base $-506	+0.5pp $-565	+1.0pp $-624

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract 1165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1165 chars)

   Embrace the ultimate lake lifestyle in this charming ranch home, perfectly situated just half a mile from the water's edge. This turn-key ready retreat offers 1,500 square feet of inviting living space, featuring two comfortable bedrooms and one-and-a-half baths. The bright and airy open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas, establishing an ideal setting for both entertaining guests and quiet relaxation. Large windows bathe the interior in natural light, enhancing the sense of peace and connection to the outdoors. Its versatile appeal makes it a perfect weekend getaway, a serene full-time residence, or a lucrative short-term rental investment. One of the home's most captivating features is the full-length covered front porch, an idyllic spot for sipping morning coffee or unwinding in the evening after a day of adventure. Set on a generous 0.72-acre lot, the property provides ample outdoor space for gardening, recreation, or simply soaking in the peaceful, natural surroundings. With boating, fishing, and kayaking just moments away, this property is your gateway to endless lakeside fun. Priced to sell!

2. 2026-03-25
   price $224,900 1165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1165 chars)

   Embrace the ultimate lake lifestyle in this charming ranch home, perfectly situated just half a mile from the water's edge. This turn-key ready retreat offers 1,500 square feet of inviting living space, featuring two comfortable bedrooms and one-and-a-half baths. The bright and airy open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas, establishing an ideal setting for both entertaining guests and quiet relaxation. Large windows bathe the interior in natural light, enhancing the sense of peace and connection to the outdoors. Its versatile appeal makes it a perfect weekend getaway, a serene full-time residence, or a lucrative short-term rental investment. One of the home's most captivating features is the full-length covered front porch, an idyllic spot for sipping morning coffee or unwinding in the evening after a day of adventure. Set on a generous 0.72-acre lot, the property provides ample outdoor space for gardening, recreation, or simply soaking in the peaceful, natural surroundings. With boating, fishing, and kayaking just moments away, this property is your gateway to endless lakeside fun. Priced to sell!

3. 2025-10-11
   price $229,900 1165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1165 chars)

   Embrace the ultimate lake lifestyle in this charming ranch home, perfectly situated just half a mile from the water's edge. This turn-key ready retreat offers 1,500 square feet of inviting living space, featuring two comfortable bedrooms and one-and-a-half baths. The bright and airy open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas, establishing an ideal setting for both entertaining guests and quiet relaxation. Large windows bathe the interior in natural light, enhancing the sense of peace and connection to the outdoors. Its versatile appeal makes it a perfect weekend getaway, a serene full-time residence, or a lucrative short-term rental investment. One of the home's most captivating features is the full-length covered front porch, an idyllic spot for sipping morning coffee or unwinding in the evening after a day of adventure. Set on a generous 0.72-acre lot, the property provides ample outdoor space for gardening, recreation, or simply soaking in the peaceful, natural surroundings. With boating, fishing, and kayaking just moments away, this property is your gateway to endless lakeside fun. Priced to sell!

4. 2025-09-26
   listed $234,900 New Listing 1165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1165 chars)

   Embrace the ultimate lake lifestyle in this charming ranch home, perfectly situated just half a mile from the water's edge. This turn-key ready retreat offers 1,500 square feet of inviting living space, featuring two comfortable bedrooms and one-and-a-half baths. The bright and airy open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas, establishing an ideal setting for both entertaining guests and quiet relaxation. Large windows bathe the interior in natural light, enhancing the sense of peace and connection to the outdoors. Its versatile appeal makes it a perfect weekend getaway, a serene full-time residence, or a lucrative short-term rental investment. One of the home's most captivating features is the full-length covered front porch, an idyllic spot for sipping morning coffee or unwinding in the evening after a day of adventure. Set on a generous 0.72-acre lot, the property provides ample outdoor space for gardening, recreation, or simply soaking in the peaceful, natural surroundings. With boating, fishing, and kayaking just moments away, this property is your gateway to endless lakeside fun. Priced to sell!

5. 2025-08-27
   historical
6. 2025-07-14
   price $239,000
7. 2025-06-25
   price $249,900
8. 2025-06-12
   price $253,900
9. 2025-05-03
   price $256,900
10. 2024-12-10
    status Active
11. 2024-12-10
    status Back on Market
12. 2024-12-04
    historical Active Under Contract
13. 2024-12-04
    status Under Contract
14. 2024-11-14
    price $259,900
15. 2024-11-13
    price $259,900
16. 2024-08-16
    listed $265,000 Active
17. 2024-08-15
    listed $265,000 New Listing
18. 2022-04-06
    soldstatus $169,600
19. 2022-03-31
    soldstatus $169,600
20. 2022-03-29
    soldstatus $169,600
21. 2022-02-25
    listed $155,000
22. 2022-02-22
    listed $155,000
23. 2020-06-09
    soldstatus $109,000
24. 2020-06-08
    status Under Contract
25. 2020-06-05
    soldstatus $109,000 Sold
26. 2020-05-16
    historical Take Backups
27. 2020-03-31
    price $119,900
28. 2020-01-26
    listed $134,900 New Listing
29. 2020-01-26
    historical
30. 2019-09-20
    price $139,900
31. 2019-07-25
    listed $149,900 New Listing
32. 2018-01-23
    soldstatus $109,000
33. 2018-01-18
    soldstatus $109,000 Sold
34. 2017-12-05
    status Under Contract
35. 2017-07-15
    listed $99,900 New Listing
36. 2017-02-01
    historical
37. 2016-08-10
    listed $137,000 New Listing
38. 2016-07-01
    historical
39. 2016-01-12
    listed $137,000 New Listing
40. 2014-05-14
    historical
41. 2012-02-24
    listed $155,000
42. 2007-10-12
    soldstatus $36,000
43. 2007-10-01
    historical
44. 2007-08-21
    listed $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $528 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,439 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$911/yr (+$76/mo · 172.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$528
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$985
• − Management: −$985
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$10,449
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,508
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Side School District
• NCES district ID: 0514040
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,658
• Composite: 29.31/100
• National rank: #6551
• State rank: #118 of 238 in AR

Livability — Higden

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #17715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,881

Population outlook (Cleburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,198 people
• By 2030: 23,324 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 21,566 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 19,916 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 16,744 · -30.8%
• By 2100: 13,303 · -45.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Cleburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.2% · R 83.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -44.2pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+61.4 2012: R+52.2 2008: R+44.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.59%
• Current HPI: 245.97
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+435.5% since first listed

44 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $224,900 CARMLS
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $229,900 CARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $234,900 CARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $239,000 CARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $249,900 CARMLS
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $253,900 CARMLS
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $256,900 CARMLS
• 2024-12-10 Relisted — MHMLS
• 2024-12-10 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2024-12-04 Contingent — MHMLS
• 2024-12-04 Pending — CARMLS
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $259,900 CARMLS
• 2024-11-13 Price Changed $259,900 MHMLS
• 2024-08-16 Listed $265,000 MHMLS
• 2024-08-15 Listed $265,000 CARMLS
• 2022-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $169,600 Public Records
• 2022-03-31 Sold (MLS) $169,600 CARMLS
• 2022-03-29 Sold (MLS) $169,600 CARMLS
• 2022-02-25 Listed $155,000 CARMLS
• 2022-02-22 Listed $155,000 CARMLS
• 2020-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-08 Pending — CARMLS
• 2020-06-05 Sold (MLS) $109,000 CARMLS
• 2020-05-16 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2020-03-31 Price Changed $119,900 CARMLS
• 2020-01-26 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2020-01-26 Listed $134,900 CARMLS
• 2019-09-20 Price Changed $139,900 CARMLS
• 2019-07-25 Listed $149,900 CARMLS
• 2018-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-18 Sold (MLS) $109,000 CARMLS
• 2017-12-05 Pending — CARMLS
• 2017-07-15 Listed $99,900 CARMLS
• 2017-02-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2016-08-10 Listed $137,000 CARMLS
• 2016-07-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2016-01-12 Listed $137,000 CARMLS
• 2014-05-14 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2012-02-24 Listed $155,000 CARMLS
• 2007-10-12 Sold (MLS) $36,000 CARMLS
• 2007-10-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2007-08-21 Listed $42,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $528 · -15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.