2512 Mountain View Rd

Powhatan, VA 23139

$319,300D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,872 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 269 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,137/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,674
• Tax + insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-274/mo
• Annual: $-3,283/yr
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $89,404

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (33.1% below list).
• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $214k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#220 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Powhatan County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #25 of 131 in VA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Powhatan Middle (math 41% / reading 77%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 969 students, 28% FRL); Powhatan High (math 64% / reading 90%, grade A-, #90 of 319 statewide, top 30%, 1,404 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 115 units permitted in Powhatan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Powhatan County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $229k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.6% in Powhatan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.