2512 Mountain View Rd · Powhatan, VA 23139

$319,300

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 269 Days on market

Built 1968 0.91 ac lot $171/sqft · 22% below area Est $410k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is subject to auction, list price based upon appraisal, seller will not accept offer prior to end of auction. Take a drive by this three bedroom, one and a half bath home and see if it may be your next investment. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * *

Key facts

• 0.91 acre lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 269 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (33.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (33.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.6% in Powhatan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#220 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Powhatan County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #25 of 131 in VA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Powhatan Middle (math 41% / reading 77%, grade B, #166 of 342 statewide, top 50%, 969 students, 28% FRL); Powhatan High (math 64% / reading 90%, grade A-, #90 of 319 statewide, top 30%, 1,404 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 115 units permitted in Powhatan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Powhatan County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $229k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,700 (33.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $410,268
• List price: $319,300
• Delta: -22.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2739 Ridgeview Rd	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,881 (+0%)	2mo	$390,000	$207	62
2900 Lake Louise Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,741 (-7%)	4mo	$339,900	$195	54
2720 Pineridge Ln	0.67mi	3/3.0	1,956 (+4%)	12mo	$418,000	$214	45
2718 Birdsong Ln	0.56mi	3/2.5	2,140 (+14%)	11mo	$425,000	$199	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-69,282
• Equity at exit: $47,609

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-83,246
• Equity at exit: $27,607

Cash invested: $89,404 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23139

• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,137 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,674
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,852/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,483

Max offer price $270,973

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-93	-5% $-183	+0% $-274	+5% $-364	+10% $-454
Rent	-10% $-442	-5% $-358	+0% $-274	+5% $-189	+10% $-105
Rate	-1.0pp $-113	-0.5pp $-192	base $-274	+0.5pp $-356	+1.0pp $-440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,825
• Closing costs: $9,579
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2581 Glenridge Ct Powhatan, VA	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,137	$1.47	12d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,300 Active 269 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,300 Active 266 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,300 Active 265 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,300 Active 264 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,300 Active 263 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,300 Active 261 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $319,300 Active 258 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,300 Active 257 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,300 Active 256 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,300 Active 255 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,300 Active 251 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,300 Active 250 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,300 Active 249 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,300 Active 248 DOM
15. 2025-09-24
    listed $319,300 Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Property is subject to auction, list price based upon appraisal, seller will not accept offer prior to end of auction. Take a drive by this three bedroom, one and a half bath home and see if it may be your next investment. * * * SPECIAL NOTES: (1) This is a CASH ONLY transaction. (2) Seller to pay Taxes, HOA, and Municipal/Utility Liens. (3) Please read the Auction disclaimers carefully before placing a bid or submitting an offer. * * *

16. 2022-06-28
    soldstatus $229,000
17. 2022-06-27
    soldstatus $229,000 Closed 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Rancher located in eastern Powhatan! Well maintained older home with 3 bedrooms and 1 1/2 baths. Close to grocery stores, restaurants and only a short drive into Chesterfield!

18. 2022-05-30
    status Pending 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Rancher located in eastern Powhatan! Well maintained older home with 3 bedrooms and 1 1/2 baths. Close to grocery stores, restaurants and only a short drive into Chesterfield!

19. 2022-05-23
    listed $229,000 Active 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Rancher located in eastern Powhatan! Well maintained older home with 3 bedrooms and 1 1/2 baths. Close to grocery stores, restaurants and only a short drive into Chesterfield!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,852 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,618 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$767/yr (+$64/mo · 41.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,886
• − Property taxes: −$1,852
• − Insurance: −$1,596
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$9,289
• Taxable loss: −$9,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,180
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Powhatan County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103030
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $76,302
• Composite: 59.31/100
• National rank: #934
• State rank: #25 of 131 in VA

Livability — Powhatan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #7302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 27,085
• Population (ZIP): 27,085

Population outlook (Powhatan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,489 people
• By 2030: 29,771 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 29,584 · +0.3%
• By 2050: 28,166 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 24,221 · -17.9%
• By 2100: 18,871 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Powhatan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.1) · D 27.5% · R 71.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.5pp · 2024: -44.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.1 2020: R+44.3 2016: R+46.5 2012: R+46.1 2008: R+40.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.42%
• Current HPI: 170.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+39.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-24 Listed $319,300 CVRMLS
• 2022-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-27 Sold (MLS) $229,000 CVRMLS
• 2022-05-30 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2022-05-23 Listed $229,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,852 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.