702 Budd Rd

Woodbourne, NY 12788

$209,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,746/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-67/mo
• Annual: $-800/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-800/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fallsburg Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #583 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Benjamin Cosor Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,024 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 810 students, 72% FRL); Fallsburg Junior Senior High School (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,046 of 1,100 statewide, top 96%, 684 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.