702 Budd Rd · Woodbourne, NY 12788

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1984 3.00 ac lot $141/sqft · 21% below area Est $265k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Private Woodland Retreat: Meticulously Maintained Home on 3 Acres! Escape to your own private sanctuary with this beautifully updated and expanded home, perfectly situated on 3 sprawling acres. Combining the ease of single-level living with significant custom additions, this residence offers a much more spacious and versatile layout than your standard floor plan. Home Highlights & Recent Upgrades This property has been lovingly cared for, featuring key mechanical and structural updates for total peace of mind: Durability: New metal roof and updated windows throughout. Efficiency: Brand-new furnace and updated skirting. Comfort: A meticulously updated main bathroom featuring an oversiz

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Spacious back deck
• 3 acre lot

Tags

• METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED HOME
• UPDATED MAIN BATHROOM
• FUNCTIONAL SUN-FILLED KITCHEN
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY UTILITY ROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Central Hudson electric service; Septic tank; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Electricity available and connected; Cable available; Trash collection (private and public options)
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-level entry
• Construction: Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Double wide home; Manufactured on land; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Built-in features; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Covered porch; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-800/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fallsburg Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #583 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Benjamin Cosor Elementary School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,024 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 810 students, 72% FRL); Fallsburg Junior Senior High School (math 52% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,046 of 1,100 statewide, top 96%, 684 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $174,562 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,000
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -21.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $109,608
• Equity at exit: $188,284

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $326,170
• Equity at exit: $406,041

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12788

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,746 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,151/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,830

Max offer price $197,222

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $52	-5% $-8	+0% $-67	+5% $-126	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-205	-5% $-136	+0% $-67	+5% $2	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-14	base $-67	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $209,000 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $209,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $209,000 Active 2030-char remark
15. 2025-10-02
    status Pending
16. 2025-10-02
    historical
17. 2025-05-02
    listed $205,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,151 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,342 · $278/mo
• Expected delta: +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$3,151
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,676
• − Management: −$1,676
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$4,388
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,053
• After-tax cash flow: $253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallsburg Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610950
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,513
• Composite: 23.84/100
• National rank: #7805
• State rank: #583 of 590 in NY

Livability — Woodbourne

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,122

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 16% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.93%
• Current HPI: 472.8635
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $209,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Listed $205,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,151 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.