4144 Lynx Ln

Jonesboro, AR 72405

$304,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,126 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,841/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-431/mo
• Annual: $-5,175/yr
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.06%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $85,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-431 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (25.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (39.6% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (39.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#145 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Nettleton School District (urban): math 21% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #199 of 238 in AR (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.