1021 Metcalfe Ln

Crystal Springs, MS 39059

$198,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,497/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $27/mo
• Annual: $330/yr
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $55,440

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($330/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (24.4% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $150k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#252 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Copiah County School District (rural): math 27% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #76 of 130 in MS (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Springs Elementary (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #155 of 375 statewide, top 44%, 397 students, 100% FRL); Crystal Springs Middle School (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #120 of 179 statewide, top 67%, 480 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Copiah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Copiah County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.9% in Crystal Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.