1021 Metcalfe Ln · Terry, MS 39059

$198,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1997 6.12 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the country and welcome to 1021 Metcalfe Lane where you will find this 4BR/2.5BA two story home situated at the very end of the lane. Secluded with absolutely no view of your neighbors, you will find this home spacious and with a little needed TLC. From the covered front porch to the screened in back porch you and your family will have plenty of room to spread out and relax! Downstairs you will find a nice size living area which features a fireplace and built in book shelves. Huge kitchen with plenty of cabinet space, breakfast bar and dining area. Appliances remaining include the dishwasher and electric stove. Bonus of a large pantry area too! Primary bedroom is spacious with

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Huge kitchen
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• FIREPLACE
• BUILT IN BOOK SHELVES
• HUGE KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property size approximately 6.12 acres
• HOA & community: Community amenities include biking trails, fishing, hiking/walking trails, lake, park, and pool

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with side-facing garage; Gravel parking areas
• Utilities: Community water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Propane connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); Two levels; Move-in ready
• Construction: HardiPlank-type exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year from public records)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Privacy and front yard fencing; Outbuilding on the property; Few trees on the lot; Front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Free-standing electric oven; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom is on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms (4 total bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Propane heating; Fireplace insert for supplemental heat; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Bookcases; Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Ceiling fan(s); Crown molding; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Pantry; Primary bedroom on the main level; Walk-in closet(s); Metal windows; Living room propane fireplace insert
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($330/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#159 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Copiah County School District (rural): math 27% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #76 of 130 in MS (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crystal Springs Elementary (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #155 of 375 statewide, top 44%, 397 students, 100% FRL); Crystal Springs Middle School (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #120 of 179 statewide, top 67%, 480 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Copiah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Copiah County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,690 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,443
• Equity at exit: $29,522

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-24,697
• Equity at exit: $17,119

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39059

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,497 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $411/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,462

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $84	+0% $27	+5% $-254	+10% $-323
Rent	-10% $-91	-5% $-32	+0% $27	+5% $87	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $78	base $27	+0.5pp $-24	+1.0pp $-76

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $198,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $198,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $411 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,564 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,153/yr (+$96/mo · 280.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,963
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$411
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,437
• − Management: −$1,437
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$3,163
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$759
• After-tax cash flow: $1,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Copiah County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801220
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,801
• Composite: 23.07/100
• National rank: #7966
• State rank: #76 of 130 in MS

Livability — Terry

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #15477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,065

Population outlook (Copiah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,625 people
• By 2030: 26,633 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 24,390 · -11.7%
• By 2050: 22,160 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 17,384 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 13,427 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 40% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Copiah

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.5% · R 52.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.0pp toward R · 2008: 7.0pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+11.4 2008: D+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.34%
• Current HPI: 160.3583
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $198,000 MLSU

Property tax history

-7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $411 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.