26 S Menantic Rd

Shelter Island Heights, NY 11964

$1,450,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,702 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 301 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,604
• Tax + insurance: −$1,064
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,827
• Net cashflow: $-1,795/mo
• Annual: $-21,541/yr
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.31%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $406,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.45M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.13M (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $870k (40.0% below list).
• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $870k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,120 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shelter Island Union Free School District (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #546 of 755 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$98k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.