26 S Menantic Rd · Shelter Island Heights, NY 11964

$1,450,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,702 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 300 Days on market

Built 1960 1.47 ac lot $852/sqft · 27% below area Est $1994k · 27% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on a beautifully level 1.47 acre lot adjacent to a serene town-owned park, this delightful cottage-style home offers a unique opportunity just moments from Montclair Colony, Salt Restaurant, and the Island Boatyard Marina. Originally built in 1960, the main residence features a spacious open-plan living and dining area with a cozy fireplace, a formal dining room, and a sunroom off the kitchen-perfect for relaxing or entertaining. There's plenty of potential here to update or expand with your own design vision. The property also includes a separate, renovated 1-bedroom cottage, complete with a legal kitchen, spacious bathroom, and inviting living area-ideal for guests, extended family, or as a rental income opportunity. A detached 2-car garage and ample outdoor space, including room for a pool, complete this rare offering in one of the area's most desirable locations. Owned solar panels provide significant energy savings with little to no ongoing cost. Don't miss your chance to enjoy the peaceful living just minutes from local favorites and the charm of the surrounding community. The sauna, lap pool in the basement are not being represented. This home is being sold "As Is"

Key facts

• Adjacent to park
• Separate cottage
• Inviting living area

Tags

• 1.47 ACRE LOT
• ADJACENT TO PARK
• SEPARATE COTTAGE
• LEGAL KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS BATHROOM
• INVITING LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.45M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.13M (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $870k (40.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $870k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,120 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Shelter Island Union Free School District (rural): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #546 of 755 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$98k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $870,000 (40.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.31%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,993,721
• List price: $1,450,000
• Delta: -27.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Bay Shore Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-2%)	10mo	$2,500,000	$1,493	63
7 Gazon Rd	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+12%)	8mo	$2,650,000	$1,394	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-17,908
• Equity at exit: $569,482

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $196,425
• Equity at exit: $818,195

Cash invested: $406,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11964

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,604
• Tax from tax record: −$460 /mo · $5,520/yr
• Insurance: −$604
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,827
• Net cashflow: $-1,795

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,972

Max offer price $1,132,887

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-974	-5% $-1,385	+0% $-1,795	+5% $-2,206	+10% $-2,616
Rent	-10% $-2,482	-5% $-2,139	+0% $-1,795	+5% $-1,451	+10% $-1,108
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,065	-0.5pp $-1,426	base $-1,795	+0.5pp $-2,171	+1.0pp $-2,553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $362,500
• Closing costs: $43,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
59 Peconic Ave Shelter Island Heights, NY	4.0	3.0	2018	$8,700	$4.31	26d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 297 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 296 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 295 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 294 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,450,000 Active 292 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $1,450,000 Active 291 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 288 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 287 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 286 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 283 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 282 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 281 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 280 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 279 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    price $1,595,000 1204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1204 chars)

    Set on a beautifully level 1.47 acre lot adjacent to a serene town-owned park, this delightful cottage-style home offers a unique opportunity just moments from Montclair Colony, Salt Restaurant, and the Island Boatyard Marina. Originally built in 1960, the main residence features a spacious open-plan living and dining area with a cozy fireplace, a formal dining room, and a sunroom off the kitchen-perfect for relaxing or entertaining. There's plenty of potential here to update or expand with your own design vision. The property also includes a separate, renovated 1-bedroom cottage, complete with a legal kitchen, spacious bathroom, and inviting living area-ideal for guests, extended family, or as a rental income opportunity. A detached 2-car garage and ample outdoor space, including room for a pool, complete this rare offering in one of the area's most desirable locations. Owned solar panels provide significant energy savings with little to no ongoing cost. Don't miss your chance to enjoy the peaceful living just minutes from local favorites and the charm of the surrounding community. The sauna, lap pool in the basement are not being represented. This home is being sold "As Is"

17. 2025-11-07
    price $1,695,000 1204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1204 chars)

    Set on a beautifully level 1.47 acre lot adjacent to a serene town-owned park, this delightful cottage-style home offers a unique opportunity just moments from Montclair Colony, Salt Restaurant, and the Island Boatyard Marina. Originally built in 1960, the main residence features a spacious open-plan living and dining area with a cozy fireplace, a formal dining room, and a sunroom off the kitchen-perfect for relaxing or entertaining. There's plenty of potential here to update or expand with your own design vision. The property also includes a separate, renovated 1-bedroom cottage, complete with a legal kitchen, spacious bathroom, and inviting living area-ideal for guests, extended family, or as a rental income opportunity. A detached 2-car garage and ample outdoor space, including room for a pool, complete this rare offering in one of the area's most desirable locations. Owned solar panels provide significant energy savings with little to no ongoing cost. Don't miss your chance to enjoy the peaceful living just minutes from local favorites and the charm of the surrounding community. The sauna, lap pool in the basement are not being represented. This home is being sold "As Is"

18. 2025-08-25
    listed $1,795,000 Active 1204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1204 chars)

    Set on a beautifully level 1.47 acre lot adjacent to a serene town-owned park, this delightful cottage-style home offers a unique opportunity just moments from Montclair Colony, Salt Restaurant, and the Island Boatyard Marina. Originally built in 1960, the main residence features a spacious open-plan living and dining area with a cozy fireplace, a formal dining room, and a sunroom off the kitchen-perfect for relaxing or entertaining. There's plenty of potential here to update or expand with your own design vision. The property also includes a separate, renovated 1-bedroom cottage, complete with a legal kitchen, spacious bathroom, and inviting living area-ideal for guests, extended family, or as a rental income opportunity. A detached 2-car garage and ample outdoor space, including room for a pool, complete this rare offering in one of the area's most desirable locations. Owned solar panels provide significant energy savings with little to no ongoing cost. Don't miss your chance to enjoy the peaceful living just minutes from local favorites and the charm of the surrounding community. The sauna, lap pool in the basement are not being represented. This home is being sold "As Is"

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,520 · $460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,012 · $1,251/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,493/yr (+$791/mo · 172.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $104,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$81,223
• − Property taxes: −$5,520
• − Insurance: −$7,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,352
• − Management: −$8,352
• − Depreciation: −$42,182
• Taxable loss: −$48,478
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,635
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelter Island Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3626640
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,456
• Composite: 41.31/100
• National rank: #7365
• State rank: #546 of 755 in NY

Livability — Shelter Island Heights

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1120
• US rank: #23056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelter Island Heights, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,858

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 21% Native American 15% Two or more races 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 13% Romanian 5% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.97%
• Current HPI: 476.2348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $1,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $1,695,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Listed $1,795,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,520 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.