509 Budd St

Carthage, NY 13619

$159,000C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,476 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,384/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-775/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-775/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (12.9% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#506 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carthage Elementary School (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,846 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 378 students, 63% FRL); Carthage Middle School (math 19% / reading 41%, grade F, #539 of 729 statewide, top 74%, 899 students, 51% FRL); Carthage Senior High School (math 92% / reading 72%, grade A, #452 of 1,100 statewide, top 44%, 815 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 31% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.