509 Budd St · Carthage, NY 13619

$159,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,476 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1900 2,590 sqft lot $108/sqft · 16% below area Est $189k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

You will love the charm and space this home has to offer. The paved driveway leads to a 1 car garage, it is best for storage, but great to have. The lovely front porch is a great place to hang out and enjoy the birds chirping as the North Country welcomes Spring. The front door leads to the living room, with original hardwood floors, and a good amount of space for furniture and hanging out. The dining room is next, but if you don’t need a formal dining room this space could be a play room or larger office. Off of the dining room is a half bath tucked under the stairs, an office with laundry closet, and the kitchen! The kitchen offers a nice amount of cabinets and countertops for food prep and storage. Off of the kitchen is a mud room for convenient access from the driveway, a great place to drop your shoes and coats. Upstairs there are 3 bedrooms and a full bath. The main bedroom has a large closet, and large enough for a queen or king size bed. The two additional bedrooms are a good size with another one also having a large closet. There is a backyard, while not large offers an area behind the home to hang out or let the pets out to catch a fresh breeze.

Key facts

• Half bath
• Large closet
• Front porch

Tags

• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• FRONT PORCH
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• HALF BATH
• MUD ROOM
• LARGE CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-775/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#506 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime B; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Carthage Central School District (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #539 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $138,422 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,164
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -15.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
228 Church St	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-5%)	7mo	$159,900	$114	75
861 State St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,540 (+4%)	4mo	$180,000	$117	73
622 Alexandria St	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,356 (-8%)	0mo	$175,000	$129	73
720 Elm St	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,620 (+10%)	8mo	$262,000	$162	69
223 S Washington St	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,570 (+6%)	9mo	$220,000	$140	68
22 Liberty St	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,472 (-0%)	2mo	$185,300	$126	64
227 S James St	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,640 (+11%)	8mo	$151,000	$92	63
142 N Washington St	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,682 (+14%)	4mo	$45,000	$27	62
51 Champion St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,392 (-6%)	0mo	$215,000	$154	61
934 Alexandria St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-6%)	4mo	$209,500	$151	61
20 Vincent St	0.66mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,654 (+12%)	6mo	$78,000	$47	37
47 N Jefferson St	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+13%)	3mo	$286,700	$171	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $82,540
• Equity at exit: $143,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $246,415
• Equity at exit: $308,902

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13619

• Home prices YoY: 26.0%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,384 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,097/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,466

Max offer price $147,592

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-20	+0% $-65	+5% $-110	+10% $-155
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-119	+0% $-65	+5% $-10	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $15	-0.5pp $-24	base $-65	+0.5pp $-106	+1.0pp $-148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
719 Alexandria St Unit 719 Carthage, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	45d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $159,000 Pending 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active Under Contract 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active Under Contract 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active Under Contract 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active Under Contract 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active Under Contract 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active Under Contract 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $159,000 Active Under Contract 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,000 Active Under Contract 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active Under Contract 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active Under Contract 54 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active Under Contract 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $159,000 1179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1179 chars)

    You will love the charm and space this home has to offer. The paved driveway leads to a 1 car garage, it is best for storage, but great to have. The lovely front porch is a great place to hang out and enjoy the birds chirping as the North Country welcomes Spring. The front door leads to the living room, with original hardwood floors, and a good amount of space for furniture and hanging out. The dining room is next, but if you don’t need a formal dining room this space could be a play room or larger office. Off of the dining room is a half bath tucked under the stairs, an office with laundry closet, and the kitchen! The kitchen offers a nice amount of cabinets and countertops for food prep and storage. Off of the kitchen is a mud room for convenient access from the driveway, a great place to drop your shoes and coats. Upstairs there are 3 bedrooms and a full bath. The main bedroom has a large closet, and large enough for a queen or king size bed. The two additional bedrooms are a good size with another one also having a large closet. There is a backyard, while not large offers an area behind the home to hang out or let the pets out to catch a fresh breeze.

15. 2026-04-08
    listed $159,900 Active 1179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1179 chars)

    You will love the charm and space this home has to offer. The paved driveway leads to a 1 car garage, it is best for storage, but great to have. The lovely front porch is a great place to hang out and enjoy the birds chirping as the North Country welcomes Spring. The front door leads to the living room, with original hardwood floors, and a good amount of space for furniture and hanging out. The dining room is next, but if you don’t need a formal dining room this space could be a play room or larger office. Off of the dining room is a half bath tucked under the stairs, an office with laundry closet, and the kitchen! The kitchen offers a nice amount of cabinets and countertops for food prep and storage. Off of the kitchen is a mud room for convenient access from the driveway, a great place to drop your shoes and coats. Upstairs there are 3 bedrooms and a full bath. The main bedroom has a large closet, and large enough for a queen or king size bed. The two additional bedrooms are a good size with another one also having a large closet. There is a backyard, while not large offers an area behind the home to hang out or let the pets out to catch a fresh breeze.

16. 2016-05-21
    historical
17. 2016-02-03
    listed $125,000
18. 2014-08-08
    historical
19. 2014-05-28
    listed $122,000
20. 2013-01-02
    historical
21. 2012-10-15
    listed $119,900
22. 2007-06-14
    soldstatus $112,000
23. 2006-09-12
    soldstatus $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,097 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,097 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$3,097
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,329
• − Management: −$1,329
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$3,471
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$833
• After-tax cash flow: $58/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606630
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,450
• Composite: 32.63/100
• National rank: #5668
• State rank: #539 of 590 in NY

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #8895

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment D+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carthage, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 10,578
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,578
• Household income: $63,120
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 379.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 84.02%
• Current HPI: 406.9439
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+140.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $159,000 CNYIS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $159,900 CNYIS
• 2016-05-21 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2016-02-03 Listed $125,000 CNYIS
• 2014-08-08 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2014-05-28 Listed $122,000 CNYIS
• 2013-01-02 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2012-10-15 Listed $119,900 CNYIS
• 2007-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,097 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.