129 Cheaneys Bridge Rd

Tappahannock, VA 22454

$133,950C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,054/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$702
• Tax + insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $41/mo
• Annual: $492/yr
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.31%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $37,506

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($492/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (21.3% below list).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($926 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#439 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Essex County Public School District (town): math 22% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #124 of 131 in VA (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 43% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.2% in Tappahannock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.