129 Cheaneys Bridge Rd · Tappahannock, VA 22454

$133,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1970 1.25 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss your chance to purchase this cozy cottage. Minutes to the Rappahannock River, Tappahannock or a comfortable commute to Richmond or Gloucester area. Priced below appraised value. 2 parcels combined to equal +/- 1.25 acres. Spacious rooms and an open floor plan in this 1 level home. Hardwood, arched openings and numerous updates through the years make for a charmingly unique home . All appliances , furniture, building materials, etc. convey with sale. Mini split installed +/- 4 years ago. Home was occupied until appx. 1 year ago. . Estate property being sold strictly AS IS. Any desired inspections shall be at Buyer(s)' direction and sole expense. Great Investment potential or live in while you make desired improvements. Seller has no interest in renting or owner financing. Will most likely require Cash or very strong Conventional Loan. Seller will not entertain contracts that require bringing property to FHA, VA, VHDA, USDA standards nor those that include verbiage that would allow Buyer to make repairs prior to closing in an attempt to qualify for financing. County records show as 2 bedroom. Only 1 has a closet and we do not have county records on septic system. Believed to have been a country store prior to being converted to a residential property many years ago. Agent is related to Seller.

Key facts

• 2 parcels combined
• Open floor plan
• Arched openings

Tags

• MINUTES TO RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER
• 2 PARCELS COMBINED
• 1.25 ACRES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HARDWOOD
• ARCHED OPENINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($492/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.2% in Tappahannock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#439 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Essex County Public School District (town): math 22% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #124 of 131 in VA (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($926 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Essex County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 43% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,390 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.31%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,756
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1891 Upright Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,196 (-1%)	12mo	$314,900	$263	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $75,497
• Equity at exit: $120,673

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $220,142
• Equity at exit: $260,235

Cash invested: $37,506 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22454

• Home prices YoY: 14.2%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$702
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $400/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,002

Max offer price $133,950

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,488
• Closing costs: $4,018
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $133,950 Pending 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $133,950 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $133,950 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $133,950 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $133,950 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $133,950 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $133,950 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $133,950 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $133,950 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $133,950 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $133,950 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $133,950 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $133,950 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $133,950 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $133,950 1326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1326 chars)

    Don't miss your chance to purchase this cozy cottage. Minutes to the Rappahannock River, Tappahannock or a comfortable commute to Richmond or Gloucester area. Priced below appraised value. 2 parcels combined to equal +/- 1.25 acres. Spacious rooms and an open floor plan in this 1 level home. Hardwood, arched openings and numerous updates through the years make for a charmingly unique home . All appliances , furniture, building materials, etc. convey with sale. Mini split installed +/- 4 years ago. Home was occupied until appx. 1 year ago. . Estate property being sold strictly AS IS. Any desired inspections shall be at Buyer(s)' direction and sole expense. Great Investment potential or live in while you make desired improvements. Seller has no interest in renting or owner financing. Will most likely require Cash or very strong Conventional Loan. Seller will not entertain contracts that require bringing property to FHA, VA, VHDA, USDA standards nor those that include verbiage that would allow Buyer to make repairs prior to closing in an attempt to qualify for financing. County records show as 2 bedroom. Only 1 has a closet and we do not have county records on septic system. Believed to have been a country store prior to being converted to a residential property many years ago. Agent is related to Seller.

16. 2026-03-04
    listed $137,000 Active 1326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1326 chars)

    Don't miss your chance to purchase this cozy cottage. Minutes to the Rappahannock River, Tappahannock or a comfortable commute to Richmond or Gloucester area. Priced below appraised value. 2 parcels combined to equal +/- 1.25 acres. Spacious rooms and an open floor plan in this 1 level home. Hardwood, arched openings and numerous updates through the years make for a charmingly unique home . All appliances , furniture, building materials, etc. convey with sale. Mini split installed +/- 4 years ago. Home was occupied until appx. 1 year ago. . Estate property being sold strictly AS IS. Any desired inspections shall be at Buyer(s)' direction and sole expense. Great Investment potential or live in while you make desired improvements. Seller has no interest in renting or owner financing. Will most likely require Cash or very strong Conventional Loan. Seller will not entertain contracts that require bringing property to FHA, VA, VHDA, USDA standards nor those that include verbiage that would allow Buyer to make repairs prior to closing in an attempt to qualify for financing. County records show as 2 bedroom. Only 1 has a closet and we do not have county records on septic system. Believed to have been a country store prior to being converted to a residential property many years ago. Agent is related to Seller.

17. 2026-02-28
    historical
18. 2026-01-29
    status Active
19. 2025-12-14
    status Pending
20. 2025-12-08
    price $139,950
21. 2025-09-30
    listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $400 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$699/yr (+$58/mo · 174.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 43% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,503
• − Property taxes: −$400
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,012
• − Management: −$1,012
• − Depreciation: −$3,897
• Taxable loss: −$1,846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$443
• After-tax cash flow: $935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Essex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101200
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,651
• Composite: 32.7/100
• National rank: #5645
• State rank: #124 of 131 in VA

Livability — Tappahannock

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #439
• US rank: #18835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,278

Population outlook (Essex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,027 people
• By 2030: 10,772 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 10,006 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 9,043 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 6,629 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 4,618 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 9% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Iranian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Essex

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.8) · D 45.8% · R 53.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 10.3pp · 2024: -7.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.8 2020: R+0.6 2016: R+2.2 2012: D+7.2 2008: D+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.65%
• Current HPI: 173.8158
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $133,950 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $137,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2026-01-29 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-12-14 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $139,950 CVRMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $145,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $400 · -32.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.