11 Shawnee Rd

Lake Mohegan, NY 10579

$529,900D+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,080 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,984/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax + insurance: −$1,338
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$837
• Net cashflow: $-970/mo
• Annual: $-11,634/yr
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.84%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $148,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $530k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-970 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (32.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $398k (24.8% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($514k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $359k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#417 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Putnam Valley Central School District (suburban): math 73% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #91 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $310k; list at $530k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.1% in Lake Mohegan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.