11 Shawnee Rd · Lake Mohegan, NY 10579

$529,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1987 0.53 ac lot $255/sqft · 18% below area Est $644k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy scenic mountain views, tranquility of nature, and a short stroll to stunning Lake Oscawana with everything lake life has to offer. This impeccably kept and beautifully clean Colonial is nestled in the highly desirable Abele Park lake community of Putnam Valley, complete with LAKE RIGHTS. Set on a private 1/2-acre lot surrounded by mature trees, this thoughtfully designed home offers spacious, well-proportioned living space in a serene private setting. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths, the residence includes select updates throughout and is filled with natural light streaming through oversized Andersen windows, complemented by newly refinished hardwood floors. The main level features a practical mudroom-style entrance, perfect for keeping everyday gear organized and welcoming guests. The spacious, well-appointed kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, Corian countertops, a large pantry, and flows seamlessly into the dining room, ideal for everyday living and entertaining alike. Sliding glass doors lead to an oversized refinished deck, ideal for enjoying quiet moments amid the home’s natural, forested setting. A stylish remodeled half bath is conveniently located on the main level. The inviting living room provides a cozy gathering space with a working wood-burning fireplace. Upstairs, the large primary bedroom features abundant closet space and a beautifully updated en-suite full bath with modern, refined finishes. The second bedroom is generously sized and can be easily divided to create a third bedroom, featuring an oversized closet and convenient hall access to the updated full bath. The walkout lower level presents a substantial unfinished area along with a separate storage room, offering endless potential for customization. This property is beautifully enhanced by established perennial gardens surrounding the home and a thoughtfully sectioned area ideal for growing your own vegetables. Enjoy the lifestyle this community provides with year-round recreation including boating, kayaking, swimming, fishing, and even ice skating. Residents also have access to a park and beach area, perfect for gatherings, barbecues, and relaxing lakeside days. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway, summer retreat, or full-time residence, this move-in-ready home combines charm, space, privacy and an unbeatable location in a welcoming lake community.

Key facts

• Private lot
• Oversized deck
• Natural light

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• LAKE RIGHTS
• PRIVATE LOT
• MATURE TREES
• NATURAL LIGHT
• OVERSIZED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-970 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (32.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $398k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $359k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.1% in Lake Mohegan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#417 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Putnam Valley Central School District (suburban): math 73% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #91 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $57k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($514k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $310k; list at $530k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $358,631 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.84%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $643,530
• List price: $529,900
• Delta: -17.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
466 Oscawana Lake Rd	0.42mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,071 (-0%)	10mo	$680,000	$328	62
23 Cedar Ledges	0.37mi	2/1.5	1,827 (-12%)	8mo	$535,000	$293	56
32 Lee Ave	0.35mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,040 (-2%)	22mo	$580,000	$284	51
13 Sunset Hill Rd	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,780 (-14%)	6mo	$444,000	$249	46
34 Hudson View Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	2,250 (+8%)	8mo	$490,000	$218	43
13 Evergreen Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,998 (-4%)	21mo	$675,000	$338	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $227,188
• Equity at exit: $477,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $718,266
• Equity at exit: $1,029,479

Cash invested: $148,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10579

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,984 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax from tax record: −$1,117 /mo · $13,404/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$837
• Net cashflow: $-970

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,211

Max offer price $358,631

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-670	-5% $-820	+0% $-970	+5% $-1,119	+10% $-1,269
Rent	-10% $-1,284	-5% $-1,127	+0% $-970	+5% $-812	+10% $-655
Rate	-1.0pp $-703	-0.5pp $-835	base $-970	+0.5pp $-1,107	+1.0pp $-1,247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,475
• Closing costs: $15,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $529,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $529,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $529,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $529,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $529,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $529,900 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $529,900 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $529,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $529,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-05-04
    status Pending 2397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2397 chars)

    Enjoy scenic mountain views, tranquility of nature, and a short stroll to stunning Lake Oscawana with everything lake life has to offer. This impeccably kept and beautifully clean Colonial is nestled in the highly desirable Abele Park lake community of Putnam Valley, complete with LAKE RIGHTS. Set on a private 1/2-acre lot surrounded by mature trees, this thoughtfully designed home offers spacious, well-proportioned living space in a serene private setting. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths, the residence includes select updates throughout and is filled with natural light streaming through oversized Andersen windows, complemented by newly refinished hardwood floors. The main level features a practical mudroom-style entrance, perfect for keeping everyday gear organized and welcoming guests. The spacious, well-appointed kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, Corian countertops, a large pantry, and flows seamlessly into the dining room, ideal for everyday living and entertaining alike. Sliding glass doors lead to an oversized refinished deck, ideal for enjoying quiet moments amid the home’s natural, forested setting. A stylish remodeled half bath is conveniently located on the main level. The inviting living room provides a cozy gathering space with a working wood-burning fireplace. Upstairs, the large primary bedroom features abundant closet space and a beautifully updated en-suite full bath with modern, refined finishes. The second bedroom is generously sized and can be easily divided to create a third bedroom, featuring an oversized closet and convenient hall access to the updated full bath. The walkout lower level presents a substantial unfinished area along with a separate storage room, offering endless potential for customization. This property is beautifully enhanced by established perennial gardens surrounding the home and a thoughtfully sectioned area ideal for growing your own vegetables. Enjoy the lifestyle this community provides with year-round recreation including boating, kayaking, swimming, fishing, and even ice skating. Residents also have access to a park and beach area, perfect for gatherings, barbecues, and relaxing lakeside days. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway, summer retreat, or full-time residence, this move-in-ready home combines charm, space, privacy and an unbeatable location in a welcoming lake community.

11. 2026-04-01
    listed $529,900 Active 2397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2397 chars)

    Enjoy scenic mountain views, tranquility of nature, and a short stroll to stunning Lake Oscawana with everything lake life has to offer. This impeccably kept and beautifully clean Colonial is nestled in the highly desirable Abele Park lake community of Putnam Valley, complete with LAKE RIGHTS. Set on a private 1/2-acre lot surrounded by mature trees, this thoughtfully designed home offers spacious, well-proportioned living space in a serene private setting. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 1.5 baths, the residence includes select updates throughout and is filled with natural light streaming through oversized Andersen windows, complemented by newly refinished hardwood floors. The main level features a practical mudroom-style entrance, perfect for keeping everyday gear organized and welcoming guests. The spacious, well-appointed kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, Corian countertops, a large pantry, and flows seamlessly into the dining room, ideal for everyday living and entertaining alike. Sliding glass doors lead to an oversized refinished deck, ideal for enjoying quiet moments amid the home’s natural, forested setting. A stylish remodeled half bath is conveniently located on the main level. The inviting living room provides a cozy gathering space with a working wood-burning fireplace. Upstairs, the large primary bedroom features abundant closet space and a beautifully updated en-suite full bath with modern, refined finishes. The second bedroom is generously sized and can be easily divided to create a third bedroom, featuring an oversized closet and convenient hall access to the updated full bath. The walkout lower level presents a substantial unfinished area along with a separate storage room, offering endless potential for customization. This property is beautifully enhanced by established perennial gardens surrounding the home and a thoughtfully sectioned area ideal for growing your own vegetables. Enjoy the lifestyle this community provides with year-round recreation including boating, kayaking, swimming, fishing, and even ice skating. Residents also have access to a park and beach area, perfect for gatherings, barbecues, and relaxing lakeside days. Whether you're searching for a weekend getaway, summer retreat, or full-time residence, this move-in-ready home combines charm, space, privacy and an unbeatable location in a welcoming lake community.

12. 2003-07-29
    soldstatus $310,000
13. 2003-01-30
    soldstatus $310,000 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Wonderfully Maintained Young Colonial. Offers Lr/Fpl, Eik W/ Corian Counterops. Update Pr With Tiled Floor, Large Sized Bedrooms, Full Bath With Skylight. A Must See.

14. 2002-11-01
    historical 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Wonderfully Maintained Young Colonial. Offers Lr/Fpl, Eik W/ Corian Counterops. Update Pr With Tiled Floor, Large Sized Bedrooms, Full Bath With Skylight. A Must See.

15. 2002-11-01
    price $315,000 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Wonderfully Maintained Young Colonial. Offers Lr/Fpl, Eik W/ Corian Counterops. Update Pr With Tiled Floor, Large Sized Bedrooms, Full Bath With Skylight. A Must See.

16. 2002-07-19
    listed $310,000 166-char remark

    Show marketing remark (166 chars)

    Wonderfully Maintained Young Colonial. Offers Lr/Fpl, Eik W/ Corian Counterops. Update Pr With Tiled Floor, Large Sized Bedrooms, Full Bath With Skylight. A Must See.

17. 1999-08-13
    soldstatus $168,000
18. 1984-11-16
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,404 · $1,117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,404 · $1,117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,683
• − Property taxes: −$13,404
• − Insurance: −$2,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,824
• − Management: −$3,824
• − Depreciation: −$15,415
• Taxable loss: −$20,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,039
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,595/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Putnam Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624000
• Math proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $94,086
• Composite: 65.26/100
• National rank: #491
• State rank: #91 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Mohegan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #417
• US rank: #7240

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,361
• Population (ZIP): 8,825

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.42%
• Current HPI: 269.3211
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2019.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $529,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 2003-01-30 Sold (MLS) $310,000 HGMLS
• 2002-11-01 Price Changed $315,000 HGMLS
• 2002-11-01 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2002-07-19 Listed $310,000 HGMLS
• 1999-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $168,000 Public Records
• 1984-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,404 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.