1750 E Avenue Q14

Palmdale, CA 93550

$299,999D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 180 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,992/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$500
• HOA: −$440
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $-150/mo
• Annual: $-1,795/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (0.3% below list).
• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Palmdale Elementary (suburban): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #1,147 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Palmdale Learning Plaza (783 students, 80% FRL); Cactus Medical Health And Technology Magnet Academy (865 students, 92% FRL); Palmdale High (2,443 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 575 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.3% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,992/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?