2185 Winterberry Ln

Cambridge, MD 21613

$259,990D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,762 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,545/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$267
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $-54/mo
• Annual: $-642/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $72,797

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-642/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (2.1% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $252k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#255 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities D, schools F, crime F.
• Dorchester County Public Schools (rural): math 10% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #23 of 24 in MD (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 81 units permitted in Dorchester County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dorchester County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Cambridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.