7714 Turtle Run Ct Unit d

Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40059

$249,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2024 · Condo · Active · 142 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,132/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-37/mo
• Annual: $-440/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-440/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (14.4% below list).
• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($153k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.