7714 Turtle Run Ct Unit d · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40059

$249,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Condo · 142 Days on market

Built 2024

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing Custom Patio Home in Prospect, which has 2 bedrooms and 2 full baths. There is a 1-car attached garage. New carpet and new paint enhance the quality of living here, Security System and Step In Shower Walk In Closet . The dining area connects with the glassed-in patio with tile flooring and ceiling fan. This property is tucked away with quiet living and yet the location is close to lots of shopping, restaurants, churches and expressway systems.

Key facts

• Security system
• Glassed-in patio
• Custom patio home

Tags

• CUSTOM PATIO HOME
• SECURITY SYSTEM
• STEP IN SHOWER
• WALK IN CLOSET
• GLASSED-IN PATIO
• TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-440/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($153k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,177 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,701
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-19,749
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40059

• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,178

Max offer price $243,692

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-01-26
    listed $249,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$3,735
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$4,683
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,124
• After-tax cash flow: $684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 20,892
• Household income: $152,727
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 255.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.22%
• Current HPI: 229.5964
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listed $249,000 Fizber.com