2519 Rose Dr

Gardendale, AL 35116

$135,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $933/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $-129/mo
• Annual: $-1,549/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.10%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $112k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $93k (30.9% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#113 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bryant Park Elementary (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #411 of 627 statewide, top 66%, 708 students, 62% FRL); North Jefferson Middle School (math 13% / reading 45%, grade F, #134 of 257 statewide, top 53%, 666 students, 52% FRL); Mortimer Jordan High School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #114 of 305 statewide, top 38%, 861 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $135k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.