3135 Burns Dr

Fruitland Park, FL 32163

$381,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,527 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,973/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,001
• Tax + insurance: −$832
• HOA: −$195
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-679/mo
• Annual: $-8,150/yr
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.63%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $106,820

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $382k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-679 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (31.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (22.1% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($359k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $262k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#447 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fruitland Park Elementary School (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 733 students, 66% FRL); Carver Middle School (math 41% / reading 41%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 837 students, 65% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lake average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$66k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.