811 Ocean Course Ave #811

Four Corners, FL 33896

$240,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · Built 2020 · Condo · Active · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,192/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$598
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-525/mo
• Annual: $-6,298/yr
• Cap rate: 3.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.37%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $67,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-525 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (31.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (8.7% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Westside K-8 School (math 37% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,722 students, 39% FRL); Celebration High School (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #193 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,769 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?