51 Towne Dr

Kensington, CT 06037

$399,900D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,496 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 217 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,234/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$800
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$679
• Net cashflow: $-342/mo
• Annual: $-4,101/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.66%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-342 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (19.1% below list).
• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $323k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#20 in CT, #1,490 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Berlin School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #69 of 153 in CT (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mary E. Griswold School (math 53% / reading 63%, grade C+, #176 of 553 statewide, top 32%, 528 students, 20% FRL); Catherine M. Mcgee Middle School (math 44% / reading 53%, grade C-, #84 of 175 statewide, top 49%, 582 students, 22% FRL); Berlin High School (math 38% / reading 69%, grade C-, #78 of 194 statewide, top 40%, 858 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $274k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Kensington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.